Opinion: Debate over asset sales distorted

The election is not in the forefront of the minds of most people with the final of the Rugby World Cup looming and the debate over who is the best replacement for Dan Carter.

But the debate over whether state owned assets should be sold is certainly heating up and taking a line of political rhetoric that is designed to confuse voters and perhaps investors.

National has proposed selling up to 49% of state energy producers Mighty River Power, Genesis and Meridian, along with coal producer Solid Energy, and reducing the Government's stake in national carrier Air New Zealand.

Labour and the Greens, and belatedly New Zealand First leader Winston Peters, are calling for the sale of state-owned assets to be stopped.

What the politicians seem to be missing is that it will be New Zealand "mum and dad" investors who will finally decide on who gets to own the assets, and then it will be less than half of each of those assets that will be on offer.

Prime Minister John Key has said he can guarantee a process where New Zealanders get first crack at the shares but the Government was probably powerless to stop investors selling their shares to overseas investors.

Because of the size of the floats - up to $7 billion in total - institutions will clamour to buy the shares because most of the partially privatised assets will automatically be in the NZX top 10.

Iwi and funds like KiwiSaver and the New Zealand Superannuation fund are seen as natural owners of the shares.

Mr Peters said on Thursday that National should abandon plans to sell any part of power generator Mighty River because its profits should stay in New Zealand and not go overseas.

His call followed reports from the company's annual meeting in which the company said it was in good shape for the partial privatisation planned by the Government if it is re-elected on November 26.

Mr Peters said it was foolish to privatise a highly profitable enterprise owned by New Zealand taxpayers and pass the profits to overseas interests.

"Treasury and the finance minister [Bill English] have now conceded that the power stations will attract foreign capital and it means that once again New Zealanders will see their precious assets owned offshore.

"There is no logical reason to sell these profitable ventures and it appears that National is following blind ideology and pandering to international interests," Mr Peters said.

Labour SOE spokesman Clayton Cosgrove says selling state assets will worsen New Zealand's external economic position.

Rating agency Standard & Poor's delivered a dire message to New Zealand last Friday that should compel National to change its mind on asset sales.

"It won't happen, of course, because Bill English is no longer listening to what the rating agencies tell him. But the plain fact is that, as profits from our power companies head overseas to foreign shareholders, it will result in a deterioration of our external position."

Mr English had no plan to ensure ownership remained in New Zealand, Mr Cosgrove said.

However, the trouble for Mr Cosgrove and Mr Peters is that New Zealand investors generally have a short-term investment view, with five years seeming like a long time to some.

Superannuation and investment funds take a long view, something like 25 years, on utility stocks, looking at building the gains long term.

Part of the reason is the New Zealand tendency of holding property as an investment. Investors can borrow against property and believe that, over time, the value of the property will automatically increase.

With shares, investors tend to look at day-to-day values and, when there is a gain to be had, they sell their holdings.

It can be likened to betting on a horse race or buying a Lotto ticket.

The partial sale is different from the previous sales of state assets by both Labour and National administrations.

They were were trade sales and taxpayers had no chance to participate. Profits immediately flowed offshore as the assets were milked dry of cash. Taxpayers were then forced to fund the purchase of things like KiwiRail.

This time, there will be a chance for New Zealanders to own the shares and reap the returns. The money from the sale will be used to repay overseas debt at a time when the cost of borrowing is starting to rise.

The alternative is for this Government and others to continue borrowing to fund things like the rebuilding of Christchurch, leaving the debt for our children and grandchildren to pick up in the future.

 

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