Nats ride consumer confidence dive

National has extended its lead over Labour in the latest poll, which also shows a sharp drop in consumer confidence.

The New Zealand Morgan poll released before the Easter weekend put National on 51% support (up 1.5 percentage points) and Labour on 34% (down 1 point).

It contradicted other recent polls which showed Labour slightly closing the gap.

The last TVNZ/Colmar Brunton poll put National on 50% support - down 3 percentage points since February- and Labour on 35% - up 1 point.

A New Zealand Morgan poll a fortnight ago showed Labour up 2.5 points to 35% and National down two points to 49.5%.

The latest New Zealand Morgan poll showed support for the Green Party slipping for the third survey in a row down to 6.5% (down 0.5). New Zealand First support also dropped, to 3% (down 1 point).

Maori Party support was unchanged at 2%, while support has increased for both United Future on 1% (up 0.5) and Act New Zealand on 1.5% (up 0.5).

Progressive support remained unchanged at 0.5%.

Poll spokesman Gary Morgan said the drop in the Ray Morgan New Zealand Consumer Confidence index, down to a nearrecord low of 106.6, should be of concern to Prime Minister Helen Clark.

‘‘The unhelpful comments this week by Finance Minister Michael Cullen, who gave voice to fears New Zealand may be headed for a recession, are clearly something the Government can do without as it attempts to claw back ground on the National Party heading towards the elections later in the year.

‘‘The consistent lead the National Party has held over the year means winning re-election for Helen Clark and her Government is her biggest challenge since becoming Prime Minister,'' Mr Morgan said.

The mid-March Roy Morgan New Zealand Consumer Confidence index dropped sharply to 106.6 - down 10.2 points.

This figure of 106.6 was 8.7 points below the average for 2008, of 115.3, and 15.9 points below the March average of 122.5.

The consumer confidence index dropped to a 22-month low as all major indicators tracked by Roy Morgan dropped significantly from the previous survey result.

The largest drops were recorded in relation to economic and financial conditions as the number of New Zealanders expecting good times economically for New Zealand over the next 12 months dropped to 30% (down 7 points), representing a 20-month low, while those expecting bad times was up to 47% (up 11), a 20-month high.

In terms of their personal financial situation, 47% (down 10) of New Zealanders expected to be better off financially in 12 months' time, the equal-lowest level since June 2004, while 22% (up 5 points) of New Zealanders expected to be worse off in 12 months' time, the highest reading for more than 18 months.

The numbers of people saying now was a good time to buy major household items dropped for the second poll in a row to 46% (down 3 points) while those saying now was a bad time to buy was at a record high of 33% (up 1).

When asked whether they believed their family was better off financially compared to the corresponding time last year, 36% (down 4 points) thought they were better off, while 35% (unchanged) thought they were worse off.

Both of these readings were record low results since the survey started.
Mr Morgan said New Zealanders had lost confidence about the economic conditions.

‘‘Worries about the next 12 months have risen significantly and the record low results for New Zealanders saying now is a good time to buy must be a major concern to retailers in New Zealand,'' he said.

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