National is expected to win the general election tomorrow, with only the margin of the victory and whether the party can overcome supporter complacency in doubt.
Recent opinion polls show National in a position to govern alone with 63 MPs, taking in several new list MPs.
At the same time, Labour could slump to 33 MPs and lose some of its brightest talent. However, Dunedin North labour candidate David Clark can be assured that if he wins tomorrow, his elevation will be much faster in a smaller caucus.
Labour insiders predict a bright future for Dr Clark.
The Greens seem set to be winners tomorrow, taking into Parliament up to eight new MPs.
Co-leader Russel Norman has worked hard to move the party towards the mainstream.
Whether all the likely new Green MPs see the party that way will be interesting to watch.
Polling just below the 5% threshold, New Zealand First has both major parties on tenterhooks.
If leader Winston Peters goes into Parliament with six other MPs, New Zealand could face another election within months.
Mr Key has ruled out working with him. Mr Goff has not.
But should New Zealand First be returned, and if the new government then lost a vote of confidence having failed to secure their backing, it would likely mean a new election at a cost of about $38 million.
If National does secure enough seats to govern alone, it would be the first majority government since MMP was introduced.
Prime Minister John Key would then face some perplexing questions: even if he does not need to work with the minor parties, Mr Key is well-versed enough in MMP to know he could at some stage need their backing.
He took the Maori Party with him in 2008, even though he did not need their support to govern.
It looks unlikely Act New Zealand will be back in Parliament, leaving Ohariu MP and United Future leader Peter Dunne and the Maori Party to support National. Mr Key has shown he is able to work with both, the two parties gaining policy wins last term.
The Greens have also been given broad hints that support for some of their policies may be approved. The Greens and National have, for instance, worked on the home insulation programme, with Mr Key claiming this week it was a Government initiative.
Labour looks set to lose some of its brightest MPs, with Stuart Nash, Carmel Sepuloni and Kelvin Davis likely to disappear. Ms Sepuloni and Mr Davis are both contesting electorates but are polling behind National MP Paula Bennett and Mana leader Hone Hawarira respectively.
If former Labour president Andrew Little does not win New Plymouth tomorrow, he will be the only new list MP entering Parliament for the party on current polling.
The party vote decides how many MPs each party has in Parliament but there are some electorate contests worth watching as the results are posted.
In Canterbury, Waimakariri MP Clayton Cosgrove could lose his seat to Employment Minister Kate Wilkinson.
National has spent a lot of money trying to win electorate seats it does not already hold, particularly Palmerston North and Rimutaka.
Te Tai Tonga is evenly poised between Maori Party MP Rahui Katene and Labour candidate Rino Tirikatene.
