The Government's budget is responsible but the predicted return to surplus is heavily contingent on the predicted economic recovery, economists said.
"This budget is about bold fiscal conservatism, not bold policy innovation," TD Securities said.
The Government was also relying on receiving a mandate for the partial privatisation of assets at the November 26 election and was assuming a strong rise in growth.
Many economists commented that it was not the usual election year budget as there was an austerity drive rather than a lolly scramble.
BNZ said that New Zealand had achieved its highest ever fiscal deficit.
"At 8.4 percent of gross domestic product (GDP) it swamps anything seen before and is a far cry from the significant surpluses recorded as recently as 2007/08."
But the interest was always going to be in how credible the return to surplus was.
"Budget forecasts are one thing. The question that always hangs over such is are they believable? On balance we would say yes but with several very strong caveats," BNZ said.
The risks to the fiscal outlook were heavily weighted to the side of disappointment.
ASB said that the operating balance before gains and losses was close to expectations in the near term, at 8.4 percent of GDP. Excluding the cost of the earthquake, it would have peaked at 5.2 percent. The balance then improves to a surplus of 0.5 percent of GDP by 2015.
"Due to the fast improvement in the fiscal balance, the increase in net debt profile is slightly less than we expected, peaking at 29.6 percent of GDP. Treasury's projections then have net debt falling as a percent of GDP thereafter.
Given the swifter improvement in the fiscal profile, the government bond tender programme was also lower than expected.
ANZ said the Government had done enough to avoid a credit rating downgrade. S&P and Fitch Ratings both released statements today which did not change their ratings.
But ANZ said the Government had not done enough to see S&P and Fitch remove New Zealand from negative outlook, especially when the Treasury was forecasting the current account deficit would widen towards 6.9 percent of GDP by 2014/15.
Goldman Aachs & Partners New Zealand said that all else being equal, fiscal consolidation would do some of the work that monetary policy would otherwise have had to do.
"While today's budget is unlikely to alter the timing of when hikes resume, in our eyes it will certainly result in a more gradual tightening path," Goldman Sachs said.
