Winter is, surprisingly, on track to be warmer than average - but climate experts say they cannot rule out more bitter polar blasts.
Their predictions come as the tail end of the destructive winter storm caused further headaches for storm-battered Wellington yesterday.
Heavy rain caused slips, surface flooding and leaky roofs while about 1200 households were still without power last night.
The rain also caused a landslip in Dunedin, forcing the brief evacuation of 11 houses, and brought flooding to mid-Canterbury, where volunteer firefighters sand-bagged about 50 flood-threatened properties in Leeston.
Despite the chaotic weather, experts agree this winter looks set to be warmer than usual.
Niwa's chief atmosphere scientist, Dr Murray Poulter, said every winter got severe storms, but overall temperatures across New Zealand would be slightly above average this winter.
"There will still be these events - the southerlies that come through and give us the snow storms in pretty much the same way they do every year. But overall, for the next three months or so, it will be slightly warmer than average."
WeatherWatch head analyst Philip Duncan said the winter weather was being driven by what was known as a "chaotic weather pattern".
"It's when you have everything being thrown at us, so you can have a winter storm and you can have a subtropical low all within two weeks of each other - and that's really what we've been seeing for the last couple of months," he said.
"For the rest of winter, there's still the chance that we'll get another one of these big systems."
And it could be a taste of what's to come with climate change. Mr Duncan said global warming of 1C or more was enough to produce far more storms.
"The biggest risk for New Zealand with climate change in winter is probably an increase in snow storms and southerly systems."
However, Mr Duncan cautioned against suggesting this storm was a direct result of climate change.
In Wellington, many took the chance to clean up after the storm yesterday - but others, including those in the coastal community of Makara, were facing a third night without power.
David Wutzler said his family had a wood fire to keep warm, but if the power didn't come back on soon, all the food in their freezer would spoil.
He hoped a temporary generator would be provided for the community, but there were fears yesterday that Makara could be cut off by flooding.
Wellington Mayor Celia Wade-Brown said line crews were making great progress to get power back on across the city in "miserable and dangerous conditions".
"In the meantime, though, we urge people to take steps to stay warm - and we urge people to help out those still without power."
In mid-Canterbury, a number of communities were hit with significant flooding yesterday including Leeston, Doyleston, Southbridge, Tai Tapu and Lincoln.
Leeston volunteer fire chief Noel Thian said some water had been getting into houses but none were inundated and no properties had been evacuated.
"We're flat out trying to sand-bag houses and properties," he said.
The weather was continuing to make conditions treacherous on the roads, with warnings in place for highways in the central North Island and the South Island affected by snow.
