Swine flu to become widespread in NZ - Ryall

Swine flu is going to become very widespread but there are resources and plans in place to deal with it, Health Minister Tony Ryall told Parliament today.

He said it was now being treated like the usual seasonal flu.

"As a result of the tremendous efforts of public health authorities and primary care professionals, New Zealand has delayed the likely peak of the swine flu beyond the annual winter flu peak," Mr Ryall said in a ministerial statement.

"I have been advised that this flu will become very widespread - the number of confirmed cases has grown by a fifth overnight."

The latest figures from the Ministry of Health, released today, put the number of confirmed cases at 364 - up 61 from yesterday.

Mr Ryall told Parliament about the move from containment to management of the epidemic, which was announced on Friday.

"As of today, 12 of the 21 district health board areas are in the management phase with a further four expected by the weekend," he said.

"Over the coming months the H1N1 flu will present challenges to the health system and the community."

Mr Ryall said the rate of spread would put pressure on hospital emergency departments and GP clinics in particular.

"For example, there may well be lengthier delays in emergency departments and some surgery may need to be deferred because of pressure on hospital beds and staff."

Mr Ryall said because nearly all cases of swine flu were mild, the national stockpile of the Tamiflu anti-viral drug was being conserved for a possible second wave of a more serious nature.

"Although the flu will become very widespread, that is expected," he said.

"It is mild and we have the resources, plans and health professionals to deal with it."

In other developments today:

* Associate Health Minister Tariana Turia said Maori people with respiratory problems should take extra precautions against swine flu.

"It is commonly known that asthma disproportionately affects Maori and lower socio-economic groups, and therefore our people need to take even more caution and be particularly vigilant with our babies and children who are asthmatic," she said.

* A survey carried out by UMR Research showed only one in four New Zealanders thought they were likely to catch it.

"Although most New Zealanders (64 percent) have been following swine flu pandemic stories in the media closely over the past month, we don't seem to be too concerned about catching it," said UMR director Tim Grafton.

"Only 28 percent expressed concern...almost half (44 percent) were not concerned."

The survey of 750 people showed those living in Christchurch and Wellington, where infections have been higher, thought they were more likely to catch it.

Across age groups, those under 30 were least concerned.

* The Civil Defence has urged people to get to know their neighbours who may be invaluable in case a health emergency hits the country.

"People make up a community and if you get to know your neighbour or join a community group, when there is an emergency, people will be able to support and help each other," Auckland region Civil Defence emergency management group controller Harry O'Rourke said.

* Ministry of Health deputy director of public health Fran McGrath said they were still unsure when the outbreak of swine flu would peak.

"What we do know though is that for most people, swine flu is a mild to moderate illness and in the most part, people will be able to care for themselves at home and not need medical care.

"For some people, the virus may result in a more serious influenza which will require medical attention."

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