University of Otago, Wellington Professor Michael Baker said the new strain was always going to make its way here.
"It was inevitable - because once it comes a dominant strain, like it has in the UK, people coming here will obviously bring it with them.
"This new variant will become dominant all over the world over the next couple of weeks and months because it's more infectious."
He said if there was community transmission with the new strain in New Zealand it would be harder to control.
"We've seen figures that it is up to 50 to 70 percent more infectious that means a higher reproduction number which means it would be harder to contain an outbreak if one occurs.
"We really want to avoid going into a lockdown but that could easily happen if an outbreak happens with the new variant."
Yesterday, the government announced that from 15 January people arriving form America and the United Kingdom will need to show they've tested negative less than 72 hours before departing.
But many travellers were already taking pre-flight coronavirus tests as a requirement for some transit countries, Prof Baker said.
The only main route from the UK to New Zealand which doesn't require a pre-departure test currently, is through Doha.
New Zealanders in the UK are not allowed to transit through Japan, China or Hong Kong, and currently need a negative test before transiting through Singapore.
Prof Baker said the new requirement was an inevitable shift in policy.
"Almost all airline routes into New Zealand require testing before you travel through them so I'm not sure if this new requirement will change much for people trying to travel here," Prof Baker said.
"We have several hundred of people travelling here each day and lots are coming from countries where the pandemic is out of control and it might get more intense over the next couple of weeks."
He said it made sense for the government to constantly review standards at the border.
"Hopefully the pre-departure test will encourage people to take more precautions before they get on the flight - that would mean basically limiting your social contacts wearing mask and having a period of home quarantine at home before you get on the plane to New Zealand," he said.
"Every time an infected person gets on a plane they can infect others on the flight staff at MIQ facilities, and we have had border failures and they are driven by the number of infected people arriving here, so the more we can turn down that tap the better for NZ."
However, testing did not always pick up people in the early stages of infection so positive cases could still arrive at the border, he said.
- If you have symptoms of the coronavirus, call the NZ Covid-19 Healthline on 0800 358 5453 (+64 9 358 5453 for international SIMs) or call your GP - don't show up at a medical centre
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Comments
Close the borders now we have seen what a week can do and how quickly this virus can spread.
I'll just leave this here for you to read. “It is a violation of human rights international law for a country to deny the right of return of their own nationals. There is a human right to return to your home country and countries cannot deprive you of this right in a way that is arbitrary. That is a principle enshrined in UN human rights, and is a basic international human right as observed through human instruments and the International Covenant of Civil and Political Rights (ICCPR),” said Contesse.
The key word in your post is 'arbitrary'. A decision made to close the borders to protect the population and economy could hardly be described or taken as 'arbitrary'.
Based on the fact the world population is facing an unknown global pandemic, we are dealing with a virus that is mutating, we don't know the outcome, nor the full impacts on public health, I would say to you that the Covid situation wasn't a consideration when the ICCPR was implemented.
We are living in exceptional times. The preservation of our nation should come above all else, for everything we have done thus far would be meaningless. Close the borders.
As long as we have tight robust border controls starting at the airports there is no reason to close the borders, however we are reliant on people following the rules. It must be made very clear to everyone we will not tolerate anyone breaking the rules. Heavy fines and restarting quarantine should be mandatory for anyone breaking our border quarantine rules.
"however we are reliant on people following the rules" ... herein lays the problem.
Testing rules and quarantines would need to be incredibly strict. No quarter nor fumbling. If that can't be done, then
NZ boarders should be closed for a least 30 days, allowing more time to get a better understanding on the current Covid strain.
To risk another lockdown when we have come this far?
The old strain hasn't been isolated - yet we are supposed to believe there is a new strain, get ready for another lockdown soon.