Political commentator Bryce Edwards is picking an open contest between Chris Hipkins, Kiri Allan and Michael Wood, with no clear consensus on who should succeed Ardern.
But despite Robertson saying he would not be putting his hat in the ring for the top job, Edwards believes his caucus colleagues may still nominate him for the role.
“I think Grant Robertson would actually probably be Labour’s best hope,” said Edwards.
“He’s currently Deputy Prime Minister, he’s Minister of Finance, he’s known [around] the country as [well as] Jacinda Ardern, he has a lot of respect.
“I think New Zealanders would very quickly get used to saying Prime Minister Grant Robertson in a way that it’s going to take a lot longer for them to get used to saying Prime Minister Michael Wood, Prime Minister Chris Hipkins or Kiri Allan.
Edwards said people should not be surprised if Robertson felt pressured by his own colleagues to end up standing.
But if he did not end up being part of the leadership race there were three frontrunners, one of whom would likely become prime minister on Sunday.
Edwards believed Chris Hipkins was the most likely to succeed.
“He’s the one with the most experience, most name recognition in the public, and he has a very strong reputation as a politician that gets things done.
He said that would be the “safe and solid option” for the caucus when they’re making the decision.
Though he wouldn’t be surprised if Wood won, as a fresh face for Labour, someone who had been rising up in the party in recent years and is seen as very competent.
He said Allan was probably the option that Labour would pick if they wanted to really roll the dice and go with a really fresh face.
While she hadn’t been in Cabinet that long she had a lot of dynamism and charisma.
“For especially the Labour Party and maybe some of the target voters for Labour, she would have a lot of appeal because she’s a young woman and, if she was chosen, she would be New Zealand’s first openly gay prime minister.”
Edwards said there was a huge amount of pressure on the party to avoid a fiercely contended contest to try and come up with a consensus.
“I would expect that behind the scenes, the various factions will come together and work out who should be the leader and yeah, there won’t even be a vote.”
He said it was likely the contenders would " sort it out amongst themselves” so there was more of an anointed process rather than a contested fight.
Chris Hipkins
Education and Police Minister Chris Hipkins would not comment on who the next Labour leader should be - including himself - instead wanting to focus on Ardern’s legacy.
“I really think that we should, you know, take the time to acknowledge the extraordinary leadership that she has shown in terms of where we go from here.
“I think the caucus needs an opportunity to digest the news and to think about it and to talk to each other.
“If we can form a consensus position and then really get behind the new leader, I’m committed to playing my part in that process, whatever that might be.”
Kiri Allan
Justice Minister Kiri Allan deferred when asked if she would put her name forward to be party leader and prime minister, saying the caucus would be “going through that process over the next few days” with a decision by Sunday.
Allan said Ardern had led the country through “some of the most incredible challenges”.
“I reflect on what she has done in terms of leading with grace, leading with empathy, leading with compassion.
“I am incredibly proud to have served as a minister in her Cabinet and the footprint, the imprint that she will have on what she has given Aotearoa will go down in history as she will be one of our most significant leaders.”
Allan said Labour was “absolutely” in a position to win the election this year.
“Part of her legacy will be the fact that she has got a caucus of 65 MPs that she has invested in, who care deeply about New Zealand. We have a plan, Labour has an economic plan, a social plan.
“We’re in the throes of some incredibly challenging times and from the legacy that she’s left us all I think we’re well-equipped to take the next steps.”
Grant Robertson
Deputy Prime Minister Grant Robertson released a statement ruling himself out of the running for the top job.
“I am not putting myself forward to be a candidate for the leadership of the Labour Party. In 2014 when I failed to secure the leadership of the party for the second time I indicated that I would not put myself forward again. My position has not changed,” Robertson said.
“The level of intensity and commitment required of Prime Minister is an order of magnitude greater than any other role. It is a job that you must unequivocally want to do in order to do it the justice it deserves. I have every confidence that there are colleagues within the caucus who are both capable of doing the role, and have the desire to take it on. They will have my full support.”
He elaborated that he would be happy to support the future leader in whatever capacity he could.
“It is a privilege to be Minister of Finance. I recognise that as the country faces a challenging economic environment, experience, stability and continuity are critical. I remain absolutely committed to fulfilling that role, or any other one the new leader will ask me to undertake. I am also committed to running in the 2023 election to help secure a further term for a Labour-led government.”
Environment Minister David Parker today tweeted “For Grant” but clarified to an RNZ reporter that this was an inside joke.
Asked whether it was a good time to make a joke like that, he laughed and said: “It worked for me.”
Michael Wood
Immigration and Transport Minister Michael Wood – who has been tipped as a future leader – would not comment on whether he would put his name forward, saying “today is about celebrating one of the finest prime ministers we have ever had”.
He said he was “very proud” to have served under Ardern.
“Today’s about recognising her extraordinary achievements over a period of momentous years for New Zealand.
“That’s all I’ll be saying today. There’ll be an internal caucus process and that’s all I’ll be saying today.”
Megan Woods
Housing Minister Megan Woods would not rule herself out of the leadership race, according to RNZ.
Woods said today was about the “enormous contribution” Ardern had made.
“I’ve stood beside her on so many occasions where I think we’ve witnessed leadership that New Zealand can be immensely proud to have had her as leader.”
She would not add to speculation about who would throw their hat into the ring.
“Apart from the announcement that’s been made about Grant’s intentions, this is a discussion for caucus and no one will be ruling in or out.”
Woods is also chairing the election campaign and said while Ardern was important to Labour as an effective communicator with intellectual grunt, “we have a campaign that is raring to go that is about what we have managed to achieve in the last five years, but more importantly what we want to achieve in the next three”.
Nanaia Mahuta
Minister of Foreign Affairs Nanaia Mahuta said Ardern had been “courageous” and “empathetic” as leader.
“She’s shown leadership when it really mattered and she’s made a decision that I think is the right time for her.”
She declined to say if she would put her name forward to be leader, saying that was a caucus process.
Andrew Little
Health Minister and former Labour leader Andrew Little said Ardern’s decision had taken everybody by surprise and caucus needed to make its decision about the next leader.
“We are seeing a Prime Minister who I think will go down in history as one of the best, most outstanding New Zealand prime ministers we’ve had, step down.
“There was a huge sense of understanding about the difficulty of the decision, but understanding the reasons for the decision ... the number of issues and challenges and the scale and magnitude of them that she’s dealt with in the last five years.”
Kelvin Davis
Corrections Minister and Deputy Leader of the Labour Party Kelvin Davis was definitive in ruling himself out of the race for the top job.
“No, I won’t be contesting, I’ll be supporting whoever is the new leader. Definite no.”
Willie Jackson
Broadcasting Minister and leader of the Māori caucus Willie Jackson said he had never seen a politician like Ardern.
“She’s meant so much to us, you know, and I thank her for the contribution she’s made in terms of Māori. Really just sad and disappointed.”
Jackson said the Māori and Pacific caucuses would meet together, and he felt there could be a “number” of MPs who put their names forward.
“We’ve got people who are looking to put their hand up over the next few days.”
He could “pretty much” rule out putting himself forward, he said.
Kieran McAnulty
Former Labour Whip Kieran McAnulty ruled himself out of the running, saying there were no candidates yet but he “most certainly will not” be one of them.
What happens next
Labour had made the decision to choose a new leader - and therefore Prime Minister - within three days, Ardern said, while announcing her resignation.
A vote will be held on Sunday, January 22.
One individual will need more than two-thirds support within the Labour Caucus - 44 votes of 65 possible votes - to become leader. If this doesn’t happen, the leadership contest goes to the wider membership within the party.
Ardern said she would not back any single candidate for the leadership.
She will stand down as Prime Minister on February 7 but remain the MP for Mt Albert until April, when she will leave Parliament - 15 years after being sworn in.
