Polls show Peters firmly in the role of kingmaker

NZ First leader Winston Peters has a habit of refusing to begin coalition talks before special votes are counted. Photo: NZ Herald

National’s hopes for a clear election outcome on Saturday were dealt a twin blow overnight — two polls showing National and Act New Zealand will struggle to get over the line without the support of New Zealand First and Winston Peters.

The Newshub-Reid Research poll showed National on 34.5%, having plunged 4.6 points and Act was on 8.8%, giving those two parties 54 seats, needing NZ First’s 6.8% and nine seats to govern.

It also had Labour on 27.5%, the Greens on 14.9%, and Te Pāti Māori on 2.7%, giving the left bloc 57 seats. A 1News Verian poll showed Labour up 2 points to 28%, and National up 1 point to 37%.

The Greens were also up one to 14%, while Act was down one point to 9%, the lowest result in that poll for a year, while NZ First was on 6%. Te Pāti Māori was steady on 2%.

Those numbers gave the right bloc 58 seats, and the left bloc 54 seats, but NZ First’s eight seats would be needed for either side to form a government.

Mr Peters has been clear he would not go with Labour, leaving National the only option.

This is complicated by the fact that National and Act are deeply uncomfortable with the prospect of going into government with NZ First to the point where National has even floated that a second election might be required.

If the polls are correct, the Greens would be one of the winners of the election.

Though not in government, they would bring in their largest caucus of 17 or 19 MPs.

Campaigning in Dannevirke yesterday, National leader Christopher Luxon said he did not think National had peaked early and claimed he had "great momentum".

However, given the uncertainty, Mr Luxon has been unable to say when he would like to be able to form a government after the election, as this could depend on special votes which are not released until the final count is published on November 3.

"Before the election, the result is in the hands of the New Zealand people.

"That’s why I keep saying if they want change they have to step up to the plate and party vote National to make that happen," Mr Luxon said.

He said he would work with what voters gave him on election night.

Mr Peters has a habit of refusing to begin coalition talks before special votes are counted.

However, he said that might not be necessary this election, allowing talks on the right to begin soon after the election.

"That depends on what we see on election night," Mr Peters said.

Labour leader Chris Hipkins spent the day campaigning in Christchurch, with a strategy highlighting how much his party thinks voters stand to lose under National and Act.

Though no poll shows a path to power for Labour and the left — having ruled out NZ First — Mr Hipkins was optimistic.

"I think we’ve got huge momentum behind Labour as we get into the final days," he said.

"The majority of New Zealanders haven’t voted yet, many of them are still making up their minds how to vote," he said.

The next three days before polling day would be critical.

But the war in Israel has cast a cloud over the political left, Mr Hipkins being forced to "pause" a promise to invite a Palestinian official to present credentials in Wellington days after Labour first made the promise, and division between Labour and the Greens over the classification of Hamas as a terrorist organisation.

New Zealand currently recognises the military wing of Hamas as a terrorist organisation, a decision made by the Sir John Key government.

The rest of the organisation, which governs the Gaza Strip, is not currently designated a terrorist organisation by New Zealand, despite other countries, including our Five Eyes partners, recognising the political wing of Hamas as a terrorist organisation, too.

Mr Hipkins revealed that in the past three days he had sought advice on whether to extend the terrorist organisation designation to the whole organisation.

"I’ve asked for advice which will go to the next government after the election, whether it’s us or the other side, they will get a terrorist assessment on whether that designation should be extended to the political wing," Mr Hipkins said.