New Zealand authorities say a catastrophic eruption at a popular North Island volcano is "almost certain" in our lifetimes.
A popular volcanic mountain in New Zealand's North Island is due to blow, geologically speaking, and the consequences would be catastrophic, according to authorities.
Mount Taranaki, near the west coast, has been classed as "almost certain" to erupt in the next 50 years in the region's latest five-year Civil Defence plan.
About 450,000 people visit the surrounding Egmont National Park each year, with hiking trails going to the mountain's 2500-metre high summit.
Moderate or large eruptions have taken place on the mountain about every 500 years and the new assessments comes from modelling shows the predicted likelihood of an eruption in any give year has nearly doubled, from 1.6 per cent to 3.1 per cent.
The last major eruption there was in about 1655.
"An eruption of Mount Taranaki could produce volcanic hazards such as tephra falls, pyroclastic density currents, lava flows, lahars, flooding, debris avalanches, sector collapses, lightning and volcanic gases," the report said.
"An eruption of Mount Taranaki is not a matter of 'if', it is a matter of 'when'."
And it's not just visitors to the surrounding park that would in the firing line, witha number of nearby townships and infrastructure likely to be "severely affected" and in need of evacuations.
However, New Zealand's seismic monitoring agency has three monitoring sites in the area, which authorities hope will provide warning signs when something does happen.
There are currently no signs to suggest any activity.
For visitors who may still be concerned, none of the South Island's mountains are active.
Sitting at one end of the Pacific Ring of Fire, volcanic activity has played a major role in the shaping of New Zealand's landscape.
In recent years, much focus has been on the county's largest active volcano, Mount Ruapehu in the central North Island, which erupted in 2007, nearly killing a climber.
