Labour is still trailing at 27.5 percent, up 1 point on the last poll. The Green Party is at 14.9 percent, up 0.7 points.
Act hasn’t moved from 8.8 percent and New Zealand First is at 6.8 percent, up 1.6 points and well above the 5 percent threshold to enter Parliament.
Te Pāti Māori is up half a point to 2.7 percent, in the Newshub Reid Research poll.
Without NZ First, the left bloc of Labour, the Greens and Te Pāti Māori on these numbers would reach 57 seats. It’s more than what National and Act would bring in on these numbers, which is 54. The right bloc would need the nine seats this poll gives to NZ First.
But both major parties are up in the latest 1News Verian poll, also released tonight, but National would still require Winston Peters and NZ First to form a government as Act continues to slide.
The 1News Verian shows National’s picked up one point from the last 1News Verian poll, to 37 percent, but Act has dropped a point to 9 percent.
Labour’s is up 2 points to 28 and the Greens are on 15.
New Zealand First is steady on 6 percent, but it still has the balance of power, as Act and National combined would win just 58 seats.
Te Pāti Māori is steady on 2 percent.
In the preferred PM race in the The 1News Verian poll, Labour leader Chris Hipkins is steady on 25 percent, the same as National leader Christopher Luxon, who is down one point.
A week ago, the 1News Verian poll had National at 36 percent, Labour at 26 percent, the Greens at 13 percent, Act at 10 percent, NZ First at 6 percent and Te Pāti Māori at 2.2 percent.
These results were mostly unchanged from the previous week, though Act had fallen two percentage points from 12 percent, while Te Pāti Māori had edged up slightly from 1.9 percent.
Both of those results had a National-Act combination falling short of the 61 seats needed for a Parliamentary majority, meaning Luxon would be on the phone to NZ First leader Peters.
The last Newshub Reid Research was from the end of September.
It showed National at 39.1 percent, Labour at 26.5 percent, the Greens at 14.2 percent, Act at 8.8 percent, NZ First at 5.2 percent and Te Pāti Māori at 2.2 percent. National and Act would still need New Zealand First on these numbers in order to form a government.
The New Zealand Herald’s poll of polls also shows a combination of National, Act and NZ First as the most likely outcome of the election.
There is also a slim pathway to power for Labour, the Greens and Te Pāti Māori, but it rests on a small percentage swing in support to the left bloc and NZ First falling short of the 5 percent threshold, which is needed to return to Parliament without an electorate seat.
The left bloc’s chances are dramatically improved with NZ First, but Peters and Hipkins have both ruled out working with each other multiple times.
NZ First has been trending higher in the polls following Luxon’s announcement two weeks ago that he would work with Peters as a last resort.
Then on Sunday, National tried to sway voters away from NZ First and towards National by saying a second election was a “real possibility” if talks between National, Act and NZ First fell short of forming a government.
This prompted Hipkins to claim that National was “falling apart”, while also saying that Labour’s support was trending higher.
