Leading epidemiologist Sir David Skegg says New Zealand has been "let down by its allies" in its fight to eliminate Covid-19.
Skegg is the chair of an independent panel of experts who yesterday provided advice to the Government on its ongoing Covid response startegy.
The Prime Minister responded this morning. She has set out a plan to start re-opening the borders from next year, starting with a trial this year of self-isolation for vaccinated New Zealanders arriving back into the country.
That would be followed by the phased resumption of quarantine-free travel in the future.
The plan would eventually see three "pathways of travel" into New Zealand.
Virus 'still winning the war'
Speaking earlier at this morning's press conference, Skegg said despite vaccine development the virus was "still winning the war".
New Zealand had been let down by allies, Skegg said. They could have pursued the elimination strategy, but chose not to.
Many of the countries that could have eliminated Covid-19 either never tried, or threw in the towel."
Each country had done its own thing. The independent channel chaired by Helen Clark showed a weakened World Health Organisation unable to provide the leadership required.
There were also new variants, including Delta, making the virus more difficult to control.
Referencing Winston Churchill, Skegg asked how he could have had a detailed plan to defeat the enemy at the beginning of the war.
"Nor can we pretend to have a detailed plan with how we can reconnect with the world over the next year or two."
The priority was to get as many New Zealanders as possible protected by vaccination by the end of the year. But by then there could be a new variant, more challenging than Delta.
There would be though more known about vaccine efficacy, better testing, and even potentially anti-viral technology that could "completely change our attitude to this virus".
There however still needed to be a strategy, he said. The first question his group looked at was if elimination was still viable. Many people had said elimination was impossible.
"Well they were wrong," Skegg said.
He compared the New Zealand situation with that of Scotland, which had a similar population. Here 26 people had died; there over 10,000.
"We dodged a bullet," Skegg said.
But reopening borders and new variants raised further questions. The experts concluded that at this stage elimination was not only viable but the best option.
"It allows us to enjoy a lifestyle relatively unaffected by the ravages of Covid-19 and protect our health service and economy."
The United Kingdom had a great vaccination rollout, with 84 per cent of adults having antibodies from vaccination or past infection. Yet last week they still had 627 deaths from Covid - equivalent of 48 a week here, based on population.
There were also heavy social and work restrictions, with enforced mask use and a fear of contagion.
This was a real thing in the world today.
"I hope not to spend the rest of my life shielding from others. I don't want to spend the rest of my life looking at beautiful faces covered by masks. We are going for gold and we may not succeed, if we don't achieve high vaccination."
Along with high vaccination there also needed to remain precautions at the border.
The group had suggested a gradual reopening with quarantine-free travel from low and medium-risk countries, with proof of vaccination, testing and contact tracing measures.
This would occur from the beginning of next year, when everybody had a chance to be vaccinated.
The group did not favour setting a vaccination target, rather aiming for getting everybody vaccinated.
Lockdowns destroy business confidence: Rob Fyfe
Rob Fyfe told the press conference that, looking through a business lens, what destroyed confidence and viability was lockdowns.
"Businesses need to do everything they can to support people to be vaccinated."
There were many tools, including border measures, but lockdowns were the inevitable consequence where they failed.
Businesses could help people be available to be vaccinated and create understanding.
They could also encourage QR scanning and testing.
Strategies need to recognise Māori community
Dr Maia Brewerton said in terms of the Māori response, it was important the strategies and vaccination rollout recognised community.
"At the heart of being Māori you put your whānau and community ahead of yourself. That was very much what happened around New Zealand. It is not unique to Māori ... but it is very important what we do is led by our communities."
It was clear from the rollout not one size fit all. The rollout needed to be dynamic, adapt where needed, especially to reach out to the marginalised and vulnerable.
"We need to focus on those who are not accessing the vaccine, change the rollout if need be to meet those people, ask what we can do differently. Nobody knows a community like that community, a whānau like that whānau. People want the vaccine, but are not able to access it."
The Pasifika perspective
Dr Api Talemaitoga said equity needed to be at the heart of the vaccination rollout.
From a Pasifika perspective, there needed to be greater focus on education, location of vaccinations, but also on community.
It was worrying hesitancy was used as a blame, and took away the focus from education.
In terms of venue, Talemaitoga said it needed to be centred around the community and what those communities value.
'If we do our jobs well we will get high rates of coverage - Bloomfield
Dr Ashley Bloomfield said he never felt vaccine hesitancy was the problem.
"We know most people if they have information from someone they trust, offered a vaccine in a setting by someone they trust they take up that offer. If we do our job well we will get high rates of coverage."
Skegg said it was important as many as possible were vaccinated, because if not it would be less effective.
It could mean the health service would be swamped, meaning delays for elective surgery, and for things like cancer, heart attacks and stroke.
"I hope we can be unselfish and care about each other, we also need to care about the whole.
"I hope we can beat the world at vaccination as well."
Asked about 12 to 15 year olds being vaccinated before the school holidays, Bloomfield said "watch this space".
They were still awaiting trial results and evidence around efficacy and safety.
"We are watching like a hawk," he said.
