Forecasting system future still cloudy

Photo: ODT files
Photo: ODT files
The future of MetService and forecasting competitor Niwa remains up in the air, a crucial report not yet having a release date.

The Ministry of Business, Innovation and Employment (MBIE), which has been overseeing the Project Hau Nuku review with Treasury, said ministers were still mulling over its recommendations.

MBIE and Treasury staff had also been giving the government advice on the report, a ministry spokesman said.

Science sector sources believe a possible outcome of the review is that a new weather- and flood-forecasting agency will be set up out of MetService and Niwa.

MetService is the official government weather forecaster responsible for severe weather warnings and public forecasts.

Crown research institute (CRI) Niwa set up a competing forecasting business in 2013 without seeking government approval.

Niwa has kept details about Niwa Weather a closely guarded secret, but the unit has been in the spotlight for encroaching on MetService territory and questions have been asked about why taxpayers are funding two government forecasting agencies, one of which was never officially authorised.

In December 2022, MetService wrote to its then state-owned enterprises minister David Clark, angry that a government-initiated panel overstepped its brief, and suggested it could co-locate with Niwa at Greta Point in Wellington.

A week later, Dr Clark initiated the Project Hau Nuku review of competition in the public weather-forecasting system, which many had wanted for years. The job was awarded to the Sapere research group.

As a CRI, and monitored by the MBIE, Niwa is already being reviewed by the Sir Peter Gluckman-led science system advisory group.

Asked how the review was going, Sapere referred the ODT to the MBIE. A MBIE spokesman said the Hau Nuku review took place between September last year and May. Officials "followed this process closely, assisting in the provision of information where needed".

At the end of May, the shareholding ministers — Science, Innovation and Technology Minister Judith Collins and State-Owned Enterprises Minister Paul Goldsmith — received the final report and joint advice from the MBIE and Treasury on the review.

The ministers had then met their organisations earlier this month about the review, the MBIE spokesman said.

"We note that the report may be released following conclusion of the government’s consideration of its recommendations."

The MBIE’s Hau Nuku webpage was last updated more than five months ago, on February 14.

Papers released under the Official Information Act show Ms Collins had a video call with Niwa chief executive John Morgan and chairman Barry Harris on April 18.

Mr Morgan and Mr Harris had, on April 8, requested a meeting with Ms Collins through her office. A follow-up email was sent on April 16, followed by a list of what they wanted to discuss with Ms Collins and officials — the weather-forecasting review, ministerial support for a fourth-generation supercomputer (redacted in the email supplied, but referred to in a released briefing for Ms Collins), the new research vessel Kaharoa II, and a Niwa restructure.

However, the officials’ advice to the minister in a briefing was not to talk about the review with Mr Morgan and Mr Harris.

"Given the imminent delivery of the report, we recommend that discussions on the review be delayed until shareholding ministers have had the opportunity to consider the report."

Despite it being a video call, the OIA response from Ms Collins’ office said she was refusing the request for "Teams and Zoom discussions, and telephone and video-conference calls" as that information did not exist.

The ODT asked MetService and Niwa for copies of their written submissions to the review panel.

MetService declined, saying it needed to remain confidential while under consideration by the reviewers.

Niwa replied it did not "hold such information", as it had not provided a written submission.

MetService chief executive Stephen Hunt said there had been several meetings with Mr Goldsmith, who had provided updates on the review.

In the meantime, it was business as usual, he said.

"We are all focused on developing the best weather-forecasting system for New Zealand. This system will help to ensure that New Zealanders have the best weather intelligence ... in the face of climate change and immediate threats from severe weather."

Niwa also confirmed a "number" of meetings with Ms Collins and said ministers were still deliberating on the "optimal weather forecasting system".

By Paul Gorman