Tropical Cyclone Ula may strike New Zealand this week, possibly bringing heavy rain to the top of the North Island.
The category 3 storm is today halfway between Fiji and New Caledonia, but may come within reach of New Zealand as early as Tuesday, weather forecasters say.
The slow moving storm was tracking west-southwest, MetService said, and the remnants of the cyclone might move to within the northeast of the North Island by Tuesday, bringing with it bands of heavy rain to the Far North.
It was unlikely Cyclone Ula would bring warning levels of rain with it to New Zealand, both MetService and WeatherWatch said, as it would gradually weaken as it leaves the tropics and moves south.
There was "a fairly good chance of some rain", but it's unlikely to be severe, WeatherWatch said.
MetService also said there was a "low confidence" it would bring warning amounts of rain.
And campers were advised to hold out hope - as there was a chance the storm would sweep past the country.
"The computer models are showing the centre of the storm weakening and pulling away to the south east, offshore to New Zealand's east coast," WeatherWatch said.
"But, as with any cyclone in our neighbourhood, there's always the chance it may 'wobble' a little in its path, and that could mean some chance it moves a little closer to land."
And it could be good news for surfers, as WeatherWatch said even if the storm remained offshore there would be a chance of large swells.
"But deep offshore lows can bring in dangerous rips and currents, even if the weather is sunny on the beach, something particularly important to note with so many families on holiday."
It said the chance of a "direct hit" from Cyclone Ula was low, based on its latest weather modelling, adding: "Generally speaking, it's not looking too concerning."
But even if Cyclone Ula skips past relatively unnoticed, the North Island is in for rain in the coming week.
Tuesday showed the chance of rain across northern parts, but a large high would roll back in bringing mainly dry, settled weather across the country, Weather Watch said.
MetService warned a front is expected to move northeast over the south of the South Island late on Tuesday and during Wednesday morning, with the possibility of warning amounts of rain in Fiordland.
