The missile strike in Syria marked a "good day" for United States President Donald Trump, and could be a turning point in the long-running Syrian conflict, University of Otago Middle East specialist Prof Bill Harris says.
The surprise strike would help President Trump domestically, but was clearly driven by an emotional response to Bashar Al-Assad’s use of chemical weapons, he said.
"[Trump’s] obviously been moved by what he’s seen. He’s very attentive to visual media. There’s no question that he’s been moved by this, and made a 180-degree turn.
"It’s a good day for him, not that he wanted to get into this," Prof Harris said.
He thought the strike could be a turning point.
"I think this will have quite a strong psychological impact on the regime, and on the people around Assad."
Russia, which helps prop up the Assad regime with air cover, was likely to be angry with its "client" for provoking the American strike.
"Things were going well for [Russia] up to this moment. Then their client pulls something like this [the chemical strike].
"And [Assad’s] the sort of guy who will do this sort of thing."
Russia was in Syria because it wanted to assert itself as a global player, he said.
The situation could make the Russians question their involvement, Prof Harris believed.
The "cold-blooded" Russians were strategic, and did not want direct conflict with the United States.
Assad’s ground troops were struggling, and the regime’s war effort was heavily reliant on the Russians and Iranians. Prof Harris said the strike would have no effect on Islamic State. If anything, he said, the strike hurt the jihadi cause, as it would remind would-be jihadis that the Americans were willing to take military action.
It could be heartening for citizens in IS-controlled Raqqa.
"It’s very hard to say definitively on the same day as an event . . . it may turn out in six months time to have been a blip.
"I’ve got a feeling, though, that there’s a reasonable chance that this is a major event."
For President Trump, the strike assists his argument he is not a Russian puppet, but would not completely dispel it, Prof Harris said.
It also sent a message to Chinese President Xi Jinping over North Korea during the premier’s visit to the US, Prof Harris said.
● The New Zealand Government was told in advance of US plans to bomb the Syrian air base. Defence Minister Gerry Brownlee was told yesterday morning because of the defence partnership between the two countries.
New Zealand was not involved in the attack, his office has confirmed.
— Additional reporting NZN
