Delaying the assessment of the management tool used to set limits for sea lion deaths in the Auckland Islands squid fishery for five years is ''inherently risky'' given the ''uncertainties around its predictions'', an specialist review panel has found.
The panel found it would be impossible to determine whether the limits set on the squid fishery would succeed in meeting agreed management targets.
As a result, Otago University scientist Bruce Robertson has called for the panel's recommendations to be immediately implemented so new management measures could be put in place for the next fishing season, which starts on February 1, 2014. However, the Ministry for Primary Industries said it never intended to wait five years before responding to the review's recommendations.
It was considering each of the recommendations in the report on a case-by-case basis.
''Some recommendations will result in further research being conducted or changes to the population model. Until this work is completed, it is too early to anticipate what management changes may result,'' it said.
The independent review of the model and data the fishery's management was based on was commissioned by the ministry early this year.
The panel, which consisted of three international experts in marine mammal population modelling, was assisted by a group of scientists including Dr Robertson, Otago University's Assoc Prof Liz Slooten and New Zealand Sea Lion Trust member Shaun McConkey, of Dunedin.
The panel found that while the model was carefully and correctly implemented, some of the assumptions of the model included ''unknown and unaccounted-for uncertainty''.
The model was the ''best available'' for managing limits in the fishery, but it was not without ''potentially important uncertainties''.
Further testing and modifications to the model were suggested.
''Until the model has been modified, tested and rerun, it will be impossible to determine whether the current limits upon SQU6T [squid] fishery will succeed in meeting the agreed management requirements.''
Dr Robertson said given the panel's conclusions and that the Fisheries Act 1978 stressed ''decision-makers should be cautious when information is uncertain, unreliable or inadequate'', the correct course of action was to revoke the five-year plan and the 140% increase in fishing effort awarded to the industry last year, which allowed up to 68 sea lions to be killed.
''That management was based on erroneous information.''
Also, given the panel expressed concerns about how sea lion exclusion devices were working in the fishery, the 82% discount given for their use should reset to the previous level of 35% until further research was done on their effectiveness, he said.
''It is clear that this was also erroneously increased based on poor interpretation of the limited available evidence.''
