Crowd limits on outdoor events were lifted by the Government on Wednesday, and the Highlanders clash with the Blues at Forsyth Barr Stadium tomorrow afternoon will be one of the first mass gatherings since.
"Covid is a social infection," Southern District Health Board acting quality and clinical governance solutions director Hywel Lloyd said yesterday.
"The more we socialise, the more our numbers will go up again.
"We have the Zoo happening and that is going to be some fairly serious social interaction, not just for the young people in the terraces but also coming into and out of the ground and mingling before and afterwards.
"We need to be wary."
Yesterday, Otago and Southland recorded 1459 new cases of Covid-19, slightly down on Wednesday’s record 1631.
The region’s peak was expected to be about now, and modelling predicting it would be about 1500 cases was so far proving fairly accurate, he said.
"We probably need a couple more days to know if we have peaked or not, and maybe another three or four days after that to make absolutely sure because in some of the northern regions their numbers bounced about for a while and their peak lasted a couple of weeks, so it’s probably a bit soon to tell."
He feared the imminent loosening of Covid-19 safety restrictions could hike case numbers, Dr Lloyd said.
"What we don’t want to do is slacken and then see our numbers escalate again because of large gatherings."
Assuming New Zealand is still in the Red setting, indoor gathering limits will increase to 200 on April 4.
Covid modelling suggests the peak number of people in hospital comes a fortnight after the peak in case numbers, meaning southerners could be meeting in greater numbers just as hospitals come under strain from the number of Covid patients they are treating.
"We are focused on the peak and we shouldn’t be because Covid is going to be around a lot longer and any admissions we get into our health system is going to affect our ability and capacity to carry on our usual work," Dr Lloyd said.
Yesterday’s regional statistics showed how extensively Covid-19 has spread in Invercargill, which is poised to overtake Queenstown-Lakes as having the second-highest number of cases.
Dunedin recorded 400 cases yesterday, but the 280 in Invercargill was just behind the 289 recorded in Queenstown-Lakes.
Invercargill has 1647 active cases, three fewer than Queenstown-Lakes.
There were 22 people with Covid-19 in hospital in the South yesterday - 16 in Dunedin Hospital and six in Southland Hospital.
Nationally, 18,423 cases of Covid-19 were reported by the Ministry of Health yesterday.
A further 11 people who had Covid-19 had died, and 913 people were in hospital.
