Convicted murderer Clayton Weatherston is unlikely to be released after serving his 18-year minimum sentence, parole statistics reveal.
Statistics released to the Otago Daily Times show only three offenders serving life sentences were granted parole at their first Parole Board hearing between 2004 and 2008.
University of Canterbury sociologist Associate Prof Greg Newbold said the figures showed the board was getting tougher in granting parole for offenders serving life sentences and this could be attributed to the Graeme Burton case.
After serving 14 years of a life sentence, Burton was paroled in July 2006 and in January 2007 was arrested for stabbing a man in Lower Hutt.
"Burton had a big impact on the psychology of the Parole Board and they are being more careful about lifers getting released."
The Burton case had resulted in more stringent checks of parole conditions and tougher polic-ing of breaches, Dr Newbold said.
In the case of Weatherston, who was jailed yesterday for a minimum non-parole period of 18 years, it was unlikely he would be granted parole after he had served that period.
Prof Newbold said Weatherston was likely to serve at least 20 years, as it was "very unlikely" he would be granted parole at his first two hearings.
By the time of his first parole hearing, Weatherston would be in his 50s and the public would have largely forgotten his crimes, and the Elliot family may no longer want to oppose his release, he said.
"But we don't know what the world will be like in 18 years."
Prof Newbold said as an inmate he was told the best "strategy" of being granted parole was to stay out of trouble in the final five years of a prison sentence, take part in rehabilitation programmes and express remorse over your crime.
