University of Otago’s top scientists warn that even as a vaccine is introduced across the world, the vaccine programme would not be complete here until 2022.
It could be many months until vaccines slowed increasing infections globally.
Pressure on the country’s borders would continue.
Major outbreaks here were still a possibility, Webster Centre for Infectious Diseases director James Ussher said.
Associate Prof Ussher, of the university’s school of biomedical sciences, said the new year would require maintaining the vigilance — and the systems — established after Covid-19 caused a nationwide lockdown, an economic shutdown, and closed the country’s borders this year.
"As soon as you open the borders in New Zealand without quarantine — even with the vaccine — you are going to see outbreaks in New Zealand," Associate Prof Ussher said. "I think this is far, far from over."
Associate Prof Ussher said, as the pandemic continued around the globe, the pressure on borders here would mount and a vaccine was no panacea to fix everything.
However, University of Otago, Wellington, professor of public health Nick Wilson said it was likely only 70% of the population needed to be vaccinated to prevent major outbreaks.
Prof Wilson said he expected to see gradual change over 2021.
He remained hopeful of a quarantine-free transtasman travel bubble next year.
Even the return of some international travellers who could provide proof of vaccination against Covid-19 was possible, he said.
Prof Wilson said the vaccine roll-out here was likely to take a different course from other countries as New Zealand’s border workers and front-line health workers were prioritised.
And though the trusting nature of New Zealanders was a reason to be optimistic, as more people here were likely to take the vaccine than in some places, he warned not all vaccine roll-outs were smooth processes.
Nevertheless, a delay here in mass vaccination could provide better data on a vaccine’s effects, which could allay fears for some here.
In this way, New Zealand could avoid the need for Government-led media campaigns extolling the virtues of vaccination, he said.
University of Otago public health academic Prof Michael Baker said he believed 2021 in New Zealand would bring a continued improvement at managing the risk Covid-19 presented.
Prof Baker said he hoped more countries would learn from the strategy New Zealand took during the course of 2020.
Not only was the rapid development of a vaccine a "triumph of science" this year, but so too was the
effective use of non-
pharmaceutical means to eliminate the pandemic here.
And the goal of eliminating a disease early on, like New Zealand did this year, was a major departure from traditional pandemic mitigation, he said.
It was a strategy that had been proven effective, and one that should be emulated around the world.
The introduction of effective vaccines would further aid an elimination strategy in other countries in the new year, Prof Baker said.
