Chief executive Kevin Winders said although some itineraries had to be firmed up, the initial projection was for 95 cruise visits to Dunedin in the 2024-25 season — well down on the 118 for the completed 2023-24 season.
The next two seasons were predicted to feature 85 cruise ship arrivals.
This drop could have a ‘‘significant impact’’ on Dunedin’s tourism economy, Mr Winders said.
‘‘We’ve seen a reduction as a result of cruising becoming more expensive in New Zealand compared to other regions around the world.
Mr Winders said much of the international cruise industry was waiting for the New Zealand government to provide directions.
‘‘I think the challenge we’ve got is to rebuild the reputation of New Zealand as a cruise-friendly nation.’’
A recent independent valuation report compiled for Port Otago showed the cruise industry brought in an extra $187 million to the region during the 2023-24 season and supported about 1400 jobs.
Those numbers were ‘‘hugely encouraging’’, Mr Winders said.
However, the international cruise industry would not be bringing in similar numbers for the next couple of years, he said.
‘‘They’re looking for the government to show leadership and come out and give a categorical answer on cruising in Milford. It just removes the risk.
‘‘So, ultimately, if there’s a better destination around the world at lower risk, the economics and the risk profile typically leads the corporates to redeploy those vessels to other markets — and that’s what’s happened for the next couple of years.’’
New Zealand Cruise Association chief executive Jacqui Lloyd said there were several international factors at play.
‘‘We’ve got the closure of the Red Sea, so vessels that do their northern hemisphere summer in the Mediterranean, it’s very difficult for them to get down to New Zealand for the southern hemisphere summer.’’
The situation in the Milford Sound was ‘‘another uncertainty’’, she said.
‘‘When cruise lines are planning their deployment two to three years out, they need to know now whether Milford may be pulled from an itinerary in a year or two years’ time so that they can look at how they will do their deployment and their itinerary planning for New Zealand. It’s a long lead process.’’
Mr Winders was nonetheless optimistic.
‘‘The people start flowing through the community and spending and it gets pretty exciting.
‘‘Clearly, without cruise, it’s a wee bit quieter at the port, it’s a wee bit quieter in the shops and it just feels a little less dynamic.’’
Meanwhile, veteran cruise ship opponent Bruce Malhalski said he would welcome any decline in cruise ship numbers, due to their effects on the environment.
‘‘Obviously there are some of the smaller ones, which are only maybe 100 or 500 people, which are much smaller outfits, doing eco-tours and things like that, where people tend to stay in town longer.
‘‘They’re not really the ones we’re focusing on. We’re focusing on the much bigger ships, which may have 4000 passengers on them, 2000 crew, and they’re making even bigger ships as we speak.
‘‘These are the ones with their massive carbon footprint, because they keep their engines on.’’
