This would be the case even if the council adopted a high-spend package to cut emissions, a report for councillors said.
A change in government in 2023 had brought a change in approach for mitigating climate change, and shifts in policy such as transport funding priorities had implications for Dunedin meeting emissions targets, the report said.
Dunedin’s plan is not just focused on the Dunedin City Council’s actions and it was argued in September 2023 that modelling showed the city’s targets "would require a wide range of government, community and business stakeholders to pull all available levers as hard as credibly possible".
At the time, the council requested further development of a high-investment option in zero-carbon implementation for its own operation as its preferred option, and medium investment as the alternative option.
The report for this week’s council meeting about the 2025-34 draft long-term plan said the high and medium packages would support emissions reduction and provide other benefits.
"However, preliminary indications from modelling are that, in the updated context, it is unlikely either package will bring about the degree of change at the pace required to achieve the city’s 2030 target."
Modelling indicated the council could achieve its organisational target from projects included in its draft budgets.
A broader issue was transport had a high impact on mitigation of climate change, but there was reduced government support for cycling and walking infrastructure.
The council’s high-investment package included a total of more than $100million in capital expenditure and the medium package had more than $35m.
It had seemed likely the council would ask the public which package it preferred, but this fell by the wayside this week.
The council voted 8-7 to include neither in a draft long-term plan consultation document "because all the papers considered by council as part of the nine-year-plan had zero-carbon assessments".
Green MP Scott Willis said the council seemed to regard climate action as a "nice-to-have".
Cr Christine Garey said it felt like the council was giving up.
"We’re just kicking the can down the road again."
Cr David Benson-Pope said he wanted to see what the community had to say on the subject.
That the council decides not to include either high or medium options in the draft nine-year plan:
For (8): Mayor Jules Radich and Crs Sophie Barker, Bill Acklin, Kevin Gilbert, Cherry Lucas, Lee Vandervis, Brent Weatherall, Andrew Whiley.
Against (7): Crs David Benson-Pope, Christine Garey, Carmen Houlahan, Marie Laufiso, Mandy Mayhem, Jim O'Malley and Steve Walker.
