An independent reference group established by the Ministry for the Environment advised the government this week to take decisions with urgency so climate adaptation approaches could be "fully in place" by 2045.
That timeline appears at odds with the multibillion-dollar visions for 2100 unveiled by the joint Dunedin City Council-Otago Regional Council South Dunedin Future programme earlier this year.
The reference group’s report — "A proposed approach for New Zealand’s adaptation framework" — was silent on "proactive buyouts", but said any expectation of the government stepping in to buy out properties should end in 20 years’ time.
South Dunedin Future programme manager Jonathan Rowe said it was not clear how the reference group’s proposed 20-year transition period would work.
"It’s not clear how the proposed transition period and ‘no buyouts beyond 2045’ would work in practice," Mr Rowe said.
"This approach would appear to constrain options for adapting to climate change over the long term.
"That said, the report acknowledges that there is no ‘right’ answer to how long a transition should take.
"A transition period of more than 20 years would likely be required to enable the types of changes envisaged for South Dunedin."
Along with proactive buyouts the report did not address "urban regeneration", an approach that aimed to provide a vision of a "safer and better" future for areas in the firing line of the consequences of climate change, Mr Rowe said.
Urban regeneration included creating new housing and urban developments that offered commercial returns and attracted private investment, he said.
Still, Mr Rowe welcomed the reference group’s report and said the work represented a step towards long-awaited legislation and regulations on climate adaptation.
Many of the actions noted in the report, particularly around gathering and communicating information about climate change-related risks, and council planning, were already under way for South Dunedin, and across Dunedin, Mr Rowe said.
Further, he welcomed the "broad interpretation" of the reference group’s proposed "beneficiary pays" approach to climate adaptation work, saying effective adaptation would typically benefit the government, councils, property owners and others.
"At the same time, it’s important to recognise that many stakeholders will be impacted by climate change through little or no fault of their own, and some will also lack the ability to pay," he said.
"The government’s adaptation framework will need to balance these trade-offs, providing clear and consistent national guidance while retaining flexibility for local decision-making and implementation."
The reference group said due to the "place-based" nature of climate change risks, planning for climate adaptation should be done by local councils.
But it noted local government faced funding challenges and said there was evidence of "underinvestment" in New Zealand.
"People and markets should adjust to a changing climate over time," the report said.
"This means that people should be responsible for knowing their risks and making their own decisions on whether to stay in a high-risk area or move away."
The group said there was at present an expectation central and local government would step in to cover costs for individual homeowners, despite there being no legal or policy framework to require or guide these decisions.
"In the past, local and central government have offered buyouts of up to the full value of properties affected by natural hazards.
"These decisions reduce incentives for people to understand and manage their own risk, can distort property prices and have given rise to an expectation that buyouts will continue, creating a moral hazard."
