International enrolments plummeted when the Covid-19 pandemic struck and a rebound would help the university’s finances.
The university still expects to run a deficit next year.
It has also expressed fears domestic student recruitment could be curbed as potential students view New Zealand’s labour market as a more attractive option than studying.
However, the return of international students to Otago could boost total student enrolments to nearly 20,000 equivalent full-time students (EFTS) at the university.
"The decrease in domestic enrolments compared to the 2022 budget is expected to be offset by a significant recovery in international enrolments.
"[Student] growth and higher funding rates are expected to lift tuition-related income by $20 million," the university’s group 2023 budget, included in this week’s university council papers, said.
After three years of decline, next year would be the first year of international student growth since 2019, it said.
Study abroad and exchange student numbers were expected to bounce back to near 2019 numbers the following year.
What remained uncertain was the impact of nearly 30 months of New Zealand’s borders being closed, the budget documents said.
Countries competing to attract international students, such as the United Kingdom, Canada and Australia, had been welcoming back foreign students for more than 12 months.
"The performance of Immigration New Zealand in processing student visas will also impact on the recovery of international student numbers in 2023," the university said.
If its forecast was correct, the university’s student population would reach 19,969 EFTS next year.
This would be made up of 18,665 domestic students and 1304 international students, a nearly 50% increase on the number of international students this year.
The number of international students would remain well below pre-pandemic levels when there were 1752 international students at the university.
Tuition-related income is made up of primarily government funding but domestic tuition also contributes significantly.
Beyond that, with the increase in international students, international tuition should exceed $47 million next year, the university said.
The university expected to make more than $449 million in tuition-related income this year, and next year it expected to top $469 million.
Nevertheless, the university was budgeted to record a $2.1 million deficit across the group, the 2023 budget said.
The university’s deficit was budgeted to increase to $12.4 million, but the 2023 budgeted surplus for the University of Otago Foundation Trust was $10.4 million.
The university would spend nearly as much on staff as it took in from tuition next year.
Academic and professional staff salaries, plus related costs would hit $457 million next year.
