A cloud hangs over the game because the transtasman bubble has been paused, meaning both teams may not be able to travel to Dunedin from Australia.
The All Blacks are expected to leave for Perth next week, for the third and final Bledisloe Cup test on August 21, where they were expected to remain for two Rugby Championship tests against Argentina on September 11 and 18.
At the same time, the Springboks will be travelling to Australia to quarantine, before also playing matches against the Wallabies and Argentina.
But they will only be able to carry on to New Zealand if the transtasman bubble reopens, and that is not scheduled to happen until a week before the Dunedin test on September 25.
At this stage, there is doubt about the bubble being open on schedule as Australia battles to control its latest Covid outbreak.
So there seems to be a real chance the All Blacks will have to remain in Australia to play their two tests against the Springboks.
Newshub has reported All Blacks players and staff have been asked to prepare for such a scenario, but New Zealand Rugby management has declined to confirm any details to date.
University of Otago (Wellington) epidemiologist Michael Baker said the chances of the Covid travel bubble reopening in time for the game to go ahead in Dunedin were slim.
If Australia regained control of its Covid outbreak, the bubble could reopen, but that was looking "quite doubtful" at the moment, he said.
Australia recorded 379 new community cases of Covid-19 yesterday, and four in hotel quarantine.
He said the only other way the Dunedin game could go ahead was if the New Zealand Government dropped its "all or nothing" policy (where Covid has to be under control across all of Australia), and went back to a state-by-state policy where they could open bubbles to certain states.
"It might mean that if they only played games in Western Australia, including Perth which is doing well [controlling Covid], it might be OK for them to come to New Zealand.
"Technically it might be quite possible to have quarantine-free travel from some parts of Australia, but the Government has signalled that that is not their preferred approach."
Dunedin Venues Management Ltd chief executive Terry Davies was still confident the match would go ahead.
"At the moment, there is no change to the plans.
"New Zealand Rugby have given us no other indication, so we’re planning to deliver the test match as per the programme."
He said the game was "almost a sell-out" and there was only a handful of tickets left.
He said the recent All Blacks test against Fiji attracted 15,000 spectators, which had an estimated economic value of $4million to $5million to the city. A test against South Africa was likely to be worth twice that.
Dunedin accommodation bookings had been steady and Otago Motel Association president Pete Firns said many motel owners were hopeful the match would go ahead.
The September 25 game will mark the 100th test between the All Blacks and the Springboks, and the 100th anniversary of the first test between the rivals, which was held in Dunedin.
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Comments
This is all very plausible from an Auckland point of view bearing in mind they think all tests should be held in Auckland.
Perth / WA have no cases of covid. The rest of Australia is locked out of WA. So if players etc flew direct from NZ to Perth and back there is no risk of covid exposure. They could all then very easily fly to Dunedin.
Easy if you want the test in Dunedin, impossible if you want the test in Auckland.