Dan Carter is injured, therefore the All Blacks' hopes of winning the Rugby World Cup have sunk. Right? Not necessarily. Hayden Meikle looks at other examples of sports teams that have flourished when a star has fallen.
They call it the Ewing Theory.
Popular American sportswriter Bill Simmons introduced his readers to the phrase a few years ago.
Invented by a friend, the theory relates to a sports team succeeding unexpectedly after a star player is injured or joins another team.
It is named for basketball player Patrick Ewing, and the belief his college (Georgetown) and NBA (New York Knicks) teams played better when Ewing was sidelined.
It gained traction when Ewing tore an Achilles tendon in 1999, and the Knicks then made it all the way to the NBA finals.
Two things happen when a dominant player is missing:- Expectations (media and public) naturally drop.
- The other players, some of whom may have been ignored or received fewer opportunities because of the presence of a star, lift their performances.
So, might this be the case with the Dan Carter-less All Blacks?
Might they - not just Colin Slade but Piri Weepu and Ma'a Nonu and the rest - be able to shrug off the loss of their biggest star and go on to win the World Cup for the first time since 1987?
Of course they can. Here are seven examples of the Ewing Theory in action.
1) Tall Blacks (2002)
New Zealand lost star player Sean Marks to a rolled ankle and then a serious eye injury in the early rounds of the world basketball championships.
The team went on to beat China and Puerto Rico for a historic fourth placing.
Midfielder and vice-captain Tim Brown fractured his shoulder in a World Cup warm-up game against Australia.
He made the trip to South Africa but was never going to play. The remarkable All Whites drew all three games.
3) Kiwis (2008)
New Zealand league fans were rocked during the 2008 season when rising star Sonny Bill Williams walked out on the sport. What happened in the World Cup final later that year?
Kiwis 34, Kangaroos 20.
4) New York Giants (2008)
The NFL side was stunned by the premature retirement of star running back Tiki Barber.
But the Giants quickly regrouped behind young quarterback Eli Manning and shocked the New England Patriots in one of the great Super Bowls.
5) St Louis Rams (2000)
Lost starting quarterback Trent Green to injury at the start of the season and turned to Kurt Warner, a former grocery store assistant who had been playing in a tiny INDOOR American football league. The Rams won the Super Bowl and the amazing Warner was MVP.
6) NZ cricket team (1956)
The New Zealanders had just returned from a brutal tour of the subcontinent when they had to play four tests at home against the West Indies.
Severely ill star batsman Bert Sutcliffe managed to play the first two but was then told to take a break.
New Zealand went 3-0 down in the series but managed to win the fourth, its first test victory after 44 losses and draws.
Yes, the Ewing Theory has already happened at World Cup time.
The 1987 All Blacks were rocked by the withdrawal of captain Andy Dalton through injury. But we all know how that tournament ended.