Youth at risk of long-term welfare dependency is still our number one social issue, say those at the coalface. But Otago has found a way to significantly buck the trend, writes Bruce Munro.
It was late 2013. The Government's reforms aimed at reducing the high number of young people on a benefit were just over a year old. It looked like Jema Shaw was about to add to their number.
The year 12 pupil at Kavanagh College, Dunedin, had recently turned 17. She was doing OK at school but had fallen in with the wrong crowd and was feeling ''like a bit of a lost sheep''. She quit school and left town.
''I went up north to be with my dad,'' Miss Shaw explains.
''It was a way out. A way to get my stuff together ... I went up there a bit all over the place. But I sort of turned things around for myself.''
Two years on - three years after the introduction of welfare and education reforms targeting young people not in education, employment or training (Neet) - the number of Neet youth is still a pressing concern. Because these are the disengaged, the potentially disaffected, and (if they remain there long) probably the perpetual welfare beneficiary.
The reforms, introduced progressively through the second half of 2012, were focused on keeping all 16- and 17-year-olds in school or, failing that, in training or employment. The management and support of Neet youth was contracted out to non-government providers who would receive payments as long as they met their targets. More flexible employment programmes were introduced. Extra effort was invested in helping pupils find the path to tertiary education and employment. The goal was to have 85% of 18-year-olds gaining NCEA Level 2 qualifications by 2017. Other changes included paying young beneficiaries' rent and other bills directly and putting most of the rest of their entitlement on special payment cards which could only be used at specified stores, such as supermarkets.
Since then, the number of 18-year-olds with NCEA level 2 has risen 6.8% to 81.1%. But the number of Neet youth, aged 15 to 24, has risen too. What was almost 72,000 young New Zealanders doing nothing in particular day after day, is now just over 74,000 young New Zealanders doing nothing in particular day after day (footnote).
Do not say it in front of any of the extra 2000 young people in danger of becoming long-term beneficiaries, but it can be argued that the rise is not particularly significant. It is in line with growth in the population of that age group.
But dig a bit deeper, and a surprising trend emerges. While the number of 15- to 19-year-old Neet youth has decreased 8.6% in the past three years (in fact, it was starting to drop before the government reforms), the number of disengaged 20- to 24-year-olds has increased by almost 10%, or 4500 individuals. Unfortunately, the population growth explanation does not work here; the population of 20- to 24-year-olds has grown by only 5.7%.
Have the reforms been effective with the targeted group while the older group has been overlooked? Or have they been ineffective, letting Neet 15- to 19-year-olds become Neet 20- to 24-year-olds?
The Government argues things have improved for both 15 to 19 and 20- to 24-year-old Neet youth since the global financial crisis (GFC) of 2007/08. It also says more will be done with a wider age group and that Labour is at least partly to blame for the older disengaged youth.
''Unfortunately a number of today's 20- to 24-year-olds had already disengaged with the education system under the previous government's policy settings at the time of the GFC and it naturally takes longer in some cases to re-engage them,'' Steven Joyce, who is Minister for Tertiary Education, Skills and Employment, says.
Anne Tolley, who is Minister for Social Development, says there is a Bill before Parliament to extend education and training support to 18- and 19-year-old Neet youth and 19-year-old parents.
Some could say it appears to be something less than a comprehensive response. But if the presence of a growing number of older Neet youth has not been recognised until now, it is probably no surprise.
Help, however, might be on its way, from Otago.
Because burrowing into the bowels of the data reveals two things. Firstly, that most of those who have swelled the ranks of older disengaged youth live in Auckland. There are now about 17,000 Neet Aucklanders aged 20 to 24; a quarter more than there were in 2013. Once again, it is not simply because Auckland is filling up with 20- to 24-year-olds. There are actually about 7400 fewer Aucklanders in their early- to mid-20s compared with three years ago.
Secondly, while Auckland has gone in one direction, Otago has gone the other.
Across the board, the number of disengaged youth in Otago has decreased by about 1200 people, or 38%, since 2013. There are now about 600 fewer in each of the Neet youth age brackets; and that despite there being about 3200 more 15- to 24-year-olds in the region.
What's going on in Otago? And could it be applied elsewhere?
Meet John Allen. He is the southern region commissioner for the Ministry of Social Development. In 2013, Mr Allen told Dunedin Mayor Dave Cull, the city council's chief executive and representatives of 26 youth non-governmental organisations and government agencies that it could look like Dunedin did not care if its young people left school and could not get a job.
Leading up to that moment, Mr Allen had spent months getting a deep understanding of the labour market and its links to economic cycles. The bottom line for Otago and its Neet youth was that most of them were in Dunedin and their numbers were not reducing.
''Sixty-three percent of all 18- to 24-year-olds on a benefit south of the Rangitata River live in Dunedin. Now, I thought that was a massive figure,'' Mr Allen said.
''Secondly, I found that the level of unemployed 18- to 24-year-olds pretty much was a straight line. It varied from 800 to 1800 depending on whether the economy was tight or loose. But it was not coming down. That was the driver for me.
''I told the gathering ... that I would like them to buy in to a charter that says this community does not accept that young people leave school and go on a benefit.''
Mr Allen has had a lifetime of involvement in Scouting New Zealand and says Neet youth are ''dear to my heart''.
''I believe young people are the leaders not so much of tomorrow as of this afternoon, and we have a responsibility to hand it over as a going concern ... If we don't invest in young people, it's not good for our community.''
In Mr Allen's mind, business as usual was not an option.
''If you always do what you've always done, you will always get what you've always got.''
For the past year, the city's civic, social sector, education and business representatives have been working together to stop young people ''leaking'' from school and work into the welfare system.
The work is tied to a social service sector trial taking place in Dunedin. The trial is aiming to increase collaboration between service providers, and with the community, in order to tackle a range of youth ills including disengagement.
When Mr Allen did the sums at the end of last year, the number of young people on a benefit had dropped by 428 during the previous 10 months.
''We think that is pretty amazing.''
The project received $300,000 in government funding during the past financial year, and has been given $536,000 for this financial year.
''We've been charged with innovating to reduce the number of young people on a job-seeker benefit,'' Mr Allen says.
''The minister has been down here to see this model. She's met the people, and has been quite blown away by what's going on.''
Developing the business community's sense of corporate social responsibility is key, Mr Allen says.
''You can only get as many people into jobs as there are jobs in the community. We want employers to accept and take on the social responsibility that they are the providers of jobs.
''It's a Dunedin community issue and we need the Dunedin community to own it. We've taken it to a point where a strategy is defined and is going well, but we need the community to take ownership of it.''
A positive change
When Miss Shaw moved from Dunedin to Kerikeri two years ago, she admits she was ''a bit all over the place''.
But she had left town to make a positive change and that is what she did. She enjoyed spending more time with her dad, she helped look after her brothers and did seasonal work in horticulture.
She also met a young man. In the middle of last year, they both headed south.
Back in Dunedin, Miss Shaw was looking for work and thinking about training as a nurse. Then she saw an advertisement for Farmhand, Malcam Trust's free 13-week rural-based work and life skills programme.
''It was awesome,'' Miss Shaw says.
During the programme, which ended in mid-December, she completed a foundation studies level 3 course and spent three days a week working at Huntly Road Dairies, Outram.
The 600-cow dairy farm is owned and operated by Duncan Wells, who has allowed his farm to be a living classroom for Farmhand students for the past two years.
''I see it as a way of giving them an opportunity to see what it's all about,'' Mr Wells says.
''It's helping the wider agricultural sector. And I like to think we provide something positive for the young people as well.''
Things are getting better, but there is still a long way to go, Andy Kilsby, who is chief executive of the Malcam Trust, says.
The Dunedin-based trust works with more than 400 young people a year, helping them get an understanding of themselves and to develop job and life skills so they can more successfully transition from school to training and work.
''We do have a significant problem here,'' Mr Kilsby says of disengaged young people.
''We would say it is the number one social problem for Dunedin.''
He sees two important improvements during the past three years. Firstly, increased collaboration between social service providers.
''It is key for the sector to realise who does what well and to work effectively with them ... We are getting better at that.''
The second is a greater honesty about the situation facing the city's Neet youth.
While a lot of people are working hard to create jobs in the city, the reality is that presently Dunedin has low economic growth and therefore low job growth, he says.
''I think where we've gotten to is a more mature place ... the realisation that there aren't enough jobs for young people with low or no skills ... We need to find ways to engage people until those opportunities come.''
One idea being worked on is the concept of Dunedin as a city of learning; a place where everyone is constantly in formal or informal education. Looking at the future of work, high-tech learning is one obvious area of focus.
''Our young people being engaged in tech activities and having a higher digital literacy than elsewhere will mean they are better placed to take advantage of employment opportunities as they come along,'' Mr Kilsby says. ''They will be better placed to create their own employment opportunities through the creation of new technologies.''
For Neet youth, the transition to work could take some time, some persistence.
Miss Shaw's partner has found work on a dairy farm in Tuatapere. So, as of this week, she has shifted there to be closer to him, and to try turn the ''awesome'' experience she had on the Outram dairy farm into full-time work.
''I want to keep learning,'' Miss Shaw says.
''At the moment, I'm in the shed helping with milking. I hope to get work next season.
''I've learnt there are plenty of opportunities and good support networks out there ... But nothing is going to be handed to you. You have to get off the couch. Only you can solve your problems.''
Footnote: Author's figures are based on Statistics New Zealand's Household Labour Force Survey figures for 2013 to 2015. Fourth quarter (Q4) figures were used for 2013 and 2014 because Q4 was consistently closest to the four-quarter average over several years. Q4 figures for 2015 were unavailable at the time of writing. Figures for 2015 are an average of the first three quarters for the year.
