Family links in electorate important

The Otago Daily Times is profiling the region's electorates, the candidates, and the issues in the lead-up to this month's general election. Political editor Dene Mackenzie takes a look at Clutha-Southland.

If voters were looking to make some money from betting on Clutha-Southland MP Bill English holding his seat on Saturday, they will be disappointed as the iPredict site is paying only 98c for every $1 invested.

Mr English, who is also Finance Minister, commands huge loyalty in the South and has one of the strongest organisations of any National Party MP. Because his duties keep away from the electorate, sometimes for long periods, Mr English relies on his electorate organisation to ensure that support remains solid.

Clutha-Southland is the largest general electorate in the country and his family links back into the Dipton community ensure the loyal support remains steady, if not increasing at each general election.

Act New Zealand candidate Don Nicolson, a previous president of Federated Farmers, was expected to make a bit of a dent in Mr English's base but has hardly fired a shot. The emissions trading scheme is seen as something of a non-event in the South because National has extended out the entry date for the entry of agriculture into the scheme.

Farmers spoken to believe that the most important industry to the electorate - agriculture - will be kept out of the ETS for an even longer period than Prime Minister John Key has indicated.

Mr English attracted more than 22,000 votes at the last election, about 15,000 more than Labour candidate Don Pryde.

The Greens should have been able to make an impression this election with their clean waterway campaign, but despite publicity locally, the electorate has not responded in the way expected.

Soaring commodity prices have kept farmers happy. The Fonterra payouts have been high and even the predicted fall in the coming season has not dented the confidence of the farming community.

More farms have sold in the electorate since January than sold in all of 2009 and 2010.

Predictions are that Mr English will increase his majority this time as voters are looking for stability and certainty as the global credit crisis continues.

Mr English is seen as successfully steering the country's economy through a very turbulent time and Clutha-Southland voters do not want a change at the top.

National Party officials say that vote splitting is highly unlikely in Clutha-Southland.

Queenstown was brought into the electorate before the last election and has been integrated successfully, even giving Mr Key, the Minister of Tourism, a chance to campaign in the resort on National's plans to boost lagging tourist numbers.

Probably because of the inclusion of Queenstown, the electorate has a younger voting profile than some others. Most voters are in the 30-49 age group (31.55), 17.2% are in the 50-64 age group and 12.7% are in the 20-29 age range. Only 12.2% are aged 65 or above.

Nearly 80% of the electorate categorise themselves as of European descent but the electorate is not considered wealthy by the standards of some others. About 20% earn between $50,000 and $70,000, 16.6% earn up to $100,000 and 14.6% earn more than $100,000.

Statistics New Zealand officials say the influx of sharemilkers and dairy workers has tended to keep average incomes lower for a longer period of time.

Kelvin Heights, near Queenstown, is the richest area of the electorate and Ohai is the poorest, with Kaka Point and Balclutha at the mid-point of a scale of one to 10.

 

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