The Otago Daily Times is profiling the region's electorates, the candidates, and the issues in the lead-up to this month's general election. Reporter Eileen Goodwin takes a look at Dunedin South.
With 2011 bringing Hillside Engineering job losses and an unsettling schools upheaval, Dunedin South seems likely to remain a Labour stronghold.
Labour's procurement policy could mean lucrative rolling stock contracts for the workshop, with spin-offs for local businesses in an area desperate for jobs, especially for young people.
Labour has not lost the area since popular Dunedin politician Jim Barnes won St Kilda for National for six years in the 1950s.
The 2010 GST hike to 15% might have increased pressure on the electorate's high proportion of elderly people, who could also be smarting from district health board home help cuts last year.
An education restructuring that saw five schools - Forbury, Macandrew Intermediate, Caversham, College Street and Calton Hill - become two schools has been controversial, not because it happened but because of process and leadership issues.
The Green Party appears set to at least equal the 2971 party votes it got last election, with areas like Otago Peninsula probably playing a part in the Greens' strong polling.
The electorate's first woman MP, the Labour Party's Clare Curran, said the "heartland" seat was an "emblem" of her party's leftward economic tilt.
Left-of-centre parties criticised the Government for not requiring state-owned KiwiRail to favour New Zealand firms over those bidding from offshore for rolling stock work.
By dropping a "purist" belief in pursuing the lowest price, Labour saw state purchasing as a tool to nurture industry and jobs, Ms Curran said.
She will be keeping a wary eye on National's party vote in Dunedin South, which has been sneaking up in the past three elections.
National got 5004 in 2002, 9692 in 2005 and 12,742 in 2008. The 2007 boundary change embracing rural areas like Middlemarch probably helped.
Labour won 20,348 party votes in 2005, 18,311 in 2002 and 17,408 in 2008,Ms Curran's 6449-vote majority was down on previous years, but should be seen in the context of an acrimonious selection process against David Benson-Pope, as well as the boundary change, and Labour's general fall in support in 2008.
"The way I entered Parliament was certainly not the easiest way. It was very controversial for everyone involved."
Known for speaking her mind, Ms Curran has a high profile for a first-term Opposition MP, and believes she has proven herself in the electorate as well as in Parliament.
Dunedin's lack of opportunities was breeding a demographic crisis, with too few working-age people, which had a flow-on effect to school rolls, she said.
She wanted to improve her relationship with Dunedin's civic and educational leaders to further her economic development aims.
While Labour is rediscovering its roots, the Greens and National say things are changing in Dunedin South. National candidate Joanne Hayes, who moved to the South in June from northern Manawatu, said some people had made a point of telling her they would vote National for the first time in their lives.
This reflected her party's stewardship in the financial crisis and its handling of disasters such as the Canterbury earthquakes.
While she was taking some flak over the Hillside redundancies, the biggest issues on the hustings were her party's plan to sell state-owned assets and Labour's $15 minimum wage promise.
The self-described fighter had little interest in a safe blue-ribbon seat, as she wanted a challenge. She was keen to put her business development skills - she is almost finished an MBA as well as extensive work experience - to good use.
Another contesting the electorate is Alliance co-leader Kay Murray, who says Dunedin South is still a Labour stronghold. The past three years had done little to change that, especially for those on low and fixed incomes.
Green candidate Shane Gallagher, an Irishman who contested the seat in 2008, said Dunedin South was a "microcosm" for New Zealand, with its wealth disparities, noted natural environment and rural sector.
On the hustings, he was getting a more positive response than last time, including from those outside the usual profile of a Green voter.
"I think there is a real sense of inequality. Everyone constantly talks about the price of food. People are really struggling."
In parts of the electorate, housing was woefully inadequate, and he had seen children dressed up for the indoors as though they were outside.