The Otago Daily Times is profiling the region's electorates, the candidates, and the issues in the lead-up to this month's general election. North Otago bureau chief David Bruce takes a look at Waitaki.
Mrs Dean is seeking her third term, and the contest will be between her and Labour Party candidate Barry Monks.
With a track record of beating Labour Party cabinet minister David Parker in 2005 and 2008, a solid 11,000 majority from the last election and even greater support for the National Party in polls, Mrs Dean would be on a no-return for bettors if the TAB was giving odds.
Mrs Dean and Mr Monks, along with their parties in the party vote, will dominate Waitaki. Possibly the Green Party will improve on its party vote compared with last time out.
An unusual and unknown influence this year is a truly independent candidate, David Ford. He is joined by Democrats for Social Credit's Hessel van Wieren, who stood in 2008, Green Party's Sue Coutts, Conservative Party's Jesse Misa and Act New Zealand's Colin Nicholls.
Mrs Dean was first elected when it was the Otago electorate in 2005 with a narrow 1995 majority over Mr Parker. In 2008, when it changed to the Waitaki electorate, she increased that majority to 11,039.
Mr Monks enters the race relatively unknown outside the Oamaru-North Otago area, but has been working to overcome that. His political experience has been at the local body level, standing for the Waitaki District Council in 2007 and 2010, both times missing out but improving his finish from fourth of the unsuccessful candidates in the Oamaru ward to second unsuccessful last year.
And Mrs Dean has probably had an easy ride in terms of truly local issues, except for a bump in the road this week when the Waimate District Council through Mayor John Coles and deputy mayor Peter McIlraith questioned her promise over funding for two new bridges to replace the 131-year-old twin bridges on SH 82 across the Waitaki River between Kurow and Hakataramea.
She stuck to her guns - "I've always played with a straight bat with everybody" - and repeated work would start next year.
In some respects, she has also been lucky with an issue over health in Central Otago and where a CT scanner should be located - that debate has not yet really heated up.
Funding new irrigation schemes from Waimate to Central Otago, seen in rural communities as the key to economic growth, has been neatly answered by the National Party proposal to set up the Crown Water Investment Company with $400 million to invest.
The cost of upgrading water supplies to meet government imposed drinking water standards, particularly in small urban and rural communities with no government funding because they fail to meet economic criteria, is another issue.
The Waitaki electorate covers a vast area with many different communities of small populations all trying to maintain assets and infrastructure - particularly Central Otago, where they also have to meet the demands of tourists. That is placing a strain on local ratepayers.
Other issues are the same as those facing the country as a whole, National's proposed asset sales topping the list at candidates' meetings.
Along with that is the loss of people overseas to Australia, particularly young people in communities where many have to leave to find jobs anyhow, the impact of an increase in excise on wine in Central Otago and the Waitaki Valley, costs of compliance for the rural sector and small businesses, and the impact of the global economic recession making the future uncertain.
That uncertainty ranges from the impacts on individuals through to business investment - the decision by Holcim Ltd to put on hold a decision on whether to build a new cement plant near Weston in North Otago, with the promise of new jobs, is an example.
But that may play into National's hand depending on who voters see as the best party to run New Zealand in a recession.