Wholsesale trade figures decline

Jane Turner
Jane Turner
Further subdued economic data is weighing heavily on gross domestic product (GDP) expectations for the third quarter as wholesale trade figures released yesterday declined for the first time in two years.

The drop followed residential building activity having hit an 18-year low earlier in the week.

Today's release of manufacturing data by Statistics New Zealand (SNZ) is expected to further erode GDP expectations as economists appear ready to prune back GDP forecasts, and underpin forecasts the Reserve Bank will not be moving the interest-driving official cash rate (OCR) of 2.5% until mid to late next year.

Yesterday, SNZ's data on wholesale trade sales revealed it had fallen for the first time in two years - down 2.2% or $459 million in seasonally adjusted figures, compared with the previous quarter.

Five of the six indexes were in negative territory.

ASB economist Jane Turner was "surprised" at the broad base of declines, which aside from any boost from the Rugby World Cup, revealed economic activity had "remained subdued".

ASB third-quarter GDP forecasts were already revised down to 0.4% and Ms Turner expected today's manufacturing data to "weigh heavily" on ASB's next updated GDP forecast.

"The weakness in the wholesale trade survey highlights that underlying economic activity has remained very subdued . . .

the weakness in the wholesale trade survey does present some downside risk," she said.

The Reserve Bank is due to release a monetary policy statement today, with expectations it will hold the OCR at 2.5%, with no cut, further frustrating manufacturers and exporters struggling with volatile currency rates.

In contrast, on Tuesday the Reserve Bank of Australia cut its cash rate by 25 basis points to 4.25%, while data on Australian GDP yesterday showed strong growth in the third quarter of 1% and 2.5% for the year to September, the latter well above analysts' expectations of 1.9%.

The biggest fall in the wholesale trade sales was in the "other goods" index; which includes textile products, clothing and footwear, pharmaceuticals, toiletries, furniture and floor coverings, which declined 6.6%, or $233 million.

SNZ industry and labour statistics manager Louise Holmes-Oliver said the trend for total wholesale trade sales had risen steadily, by more than 14%, between the quarters from December 2009 to March 2011, but has since flattened.

Mrs Holmes-Oliver said "and this time around no single sub-industry led the fall". Machinery and equipment wholesalers registered the second-biggest fall, down 4.9% or $207 million, while the other three declines were of less than $75 million each.

She said the seasonally adjusted value of total wholesale trade stocks was $8.8 billion for the quarter, up 1.2% or $106 million, from the previous quarter. Grocery items, liquor and tobacco wholesaling contributed most to the increase.

 

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