The weakening New Zealand dollar is beginning to offer some reprieve to manufacturing exporters; it is now down 24% on its US counterpart and forecast to head further south.
Craigs Investment Partners research found the kiwi had not only fallen 24% against the greenback, relative to the 12 month high, but was down 15% against the British pound and 9% against the Australian dollar.
Craigs broker Chris Timms said there had been several strong indicators of a ''sharp downturn'' to New Zealand's economy, the ''key culprit'' being falling dairy prices.
''Unsurprisingly, it is dairy intensive regions which have experienced the biggest dive in confidence,'' Mr Timms said.
There is a fortnightly global dairy trade auction this week and some analysts are picking further erosion of prices, including the crucial whole milk powder.
Mr Timms said the falling kiwi had a ''silver lining'' for numerous exporting companies. Demand from their end markets was holding up and pricing was not facing the same pressure the dairy exporters were feeling.
''The New Zealand dollar is acting as a shock absorber for many companies now,'' Mr Timms said.
Mr Timms said beneficiaries would include Scales, as the country's second largest apple exporter, US based Diligent and Dunedin's Scott Technology, which have many contracts struck in US denomination.
New Zealand's third largest winemaker Delegate Group, exports 90% of output and honey and health products exporter Comvita should also benefit.
While Fonterra had seen dairy prices come off earlier highs and decline by 40% 50%, the weakening kiwi would offer Fonterra some relief when repatriating US dollars back to New Zealand, he said.
Craigs US dollar forecasts, the average of four banks' picks, had an average US70c by the end of the year, US68c through to the end of 2016 and an average US63c to December 2017.
''As the currency declines in response to a worsening outlook for our key export commodities, non dairy exporters are set to benefit over the coming years,'' Mr Timms said.
Putting aside the 40% dairy price decline, Mr Timms said prices for meat, wool horticultural produce and seafood had all gone up, by an average 5%.
If taking the recent kiwi decline into account, that 5% was estimated to be more than a 12% gain.
''Tourism was already in very good shape and will be seeing similar benefits from a lower currency,'' Mr Timms said.
Other companies likely to benefit from the falling currency could be those involved in tourism, including Air New Zealand and Tourism Holdings, fishing company Sanford and Refining New Zealand, which could expect a positive impact for its refining margins.
Mr Timms said Westpac's latest regional survey revealed the biggest falls in confidence in the Waikato, Taranaki, Canterbury and Southland.
Confidence was highest in Bay of Plenty, Wellington, Nelson and Auckland, all of which have little dairy exposure. Canterbury remained buoyant, but sentiment was well down from previous highs.
