Otago Chamber of Commerce chief executive John Christie is feeling cautiously optimistic about the state of the regional economy, after some promising results from the latest chamber survey.
Although warning it was too early to say the regional economy had reached the bottom of the downturn, Mr Christie was heartened by a flattening out of the results.
The March survey showed 67% of respondents thought their own business situation would stay the same or improve in the next six months.
In contrast, 57% said the New Zealand business situation would get worse.
Compared with the corresponding period last year, the experience of sales in the past three months was negative, but the figures had improved from the December quarter, he said.
"The expectations for the next three months are that sales will remain the same. Things don't appear to be getting worse and some indicators are slightly better."
The results were not specific to all businesses but generalised across a wide range of members.
"What my members are telling me is that there are some good opportunities out there. Businesses are looking to hire staff and businesses are looking to grow," Mr Christie said.
The survey showed businesses were expecting to take on more part-time staff in the next three months, the first time that figure had been positive since December 2007.
Wage increase expectations remained low; more than 50% of businesses planning on giving 2% or less and 35% of respondents expecting to give no increase in wages. Staff costs remained the highest area of concern, followed by the exchange rate. It was easier to find both skilled and unskilled staff, although the figure had dropped slightly since December.
Profitability was still in negative territory but had remained consistent with the December quarter, and was higher than the June 2008 quarter.
The expectation was that profitability would continue to fall during the next three months, Mr Christie said.
Anecdotal evidence showed the region's primary sector was in good heart and was adjusting to changing circumstances.
"The further you get from Dunedin, the more optimistic the responses were. There is still some bad news to come on job losses, but businesses are looking at cutting every possible expense before they cut jobs."
It should be noted that consumer confidence had taken a bigger hit than it should have at a local level, he said.
Most people still had their jobs and were earning "reasonably good" salaries. They had cut back their expenditure because they were fearful of losing their jobs.
While businesses could restructure, households with debt could only repay that through their salaries and wages.
"If you lose your job, you still have to pay your mortgage.
"We have all been spoilt by the economic growth. Now is the time to pay the bills.
"We can trade our way out of this as a city and a province far better than our counterparts in other parts of the country," Mr Christie said.
