Overall international passenger numbers are down 3%, but the "key" United Kingdom market was down almost 14%, ABN Amro Craigs broker Chris Timms said.
Declining profitability in its rental van division and increased losses at its van manufacturer, CI Munro, have prompted a change from full-year profit expectations of $8 million to forecasting a loss of $3.3 million.
Forsyth Barr broker Suzanne Kinnaird said there had a sharp decline of inbound European and UK tourists.
Long-haul visitor arrivals trends remained "negative and a recovery was still 12 months away".
However, Tourism Holdings' asset sales during the past 18 months had realised more than $55 million to strengthen its balance sheet and would allow it to gain market share and an advantage over weaker competitors during the downturn.
Ms Kinnaird said Forsyth Barr's earnings estimates were the most conservative of those by analysts, with an earlier full-year after-tax forecast of an $8 million profit downgraded to a $2.8 million loss.
ABN is maintaining a "hold" recommendation, downgrading the 12-month target price from $1.02 to 51c, while Forsyth Barr also maintains a hold and valuation of $1.13.
Tourism Holdings paid no dividend for the first half and Mr Timms expected there would be no full-year dividend.
Last year's dividend was 11c per share.
Tourism Holdings is scheduled to report on August 26. Financial disclosure documents are available on request.
