View guidance will remain cautious

Listed companies in New Zealand and Australia which have been reluctant to issue financial guidance during the recent reporting season may fill that void during the forthcoming nine weeks of 80 transtasman annual meetings and half-year results.

Craigs Investment Partners said it expected most corporations to remain relatively cautious and reluctant to be too specific concerning financial guidance, but the upcoming earnings and general meeting season might hold "slightly more market-moving news than usual".

"More than usual, a number of corporates chose not to give any specific guidance for the year ahead in August, preferring to wait until they had seen a few more weeks of the new financial year before making any judgements on current earnings trends," the company said.

Craigs broker Peter McIntyre said growth would be lower than expected in most areas worldwide, although balance sheets were "very strong" and strong companies in the right sectors would continue to do well.

He recommended focusing on "companies with a clear growth strategy with sound thematic drivers, companies with pricing power and the ability to keep pace with rising costs, and companies with a strong market position or a superior product which cannot easily be replicated or replaced".

Telstra, Cochlear and Contact Energy have already held meetings this week, and Sky TV and Vector will hold theirs today and Sky City and Tourism Holdings theirs tomorrow.

From Tuesday next week, there are a further 71 transtasman company meetings, including a small number of first-half reports for listed companies through to December 7.

During this period, in New Zealand he saw opportunities in Contact Energy, Sky TV, Skellerup, Cavalier, Fisher and Paykel Healthcare, Pharmacybrands and Delegats, Mr McIntyre said.

No one main investment theme ran through the seven companies, he said.

Delegats maintained a large asset base, was targeting new emerging markets, including Asia, and strictly controlled inventory, and had operated well during a period of a strong New Zealand dollar.

Contact Energy had expended a significant amount of capital on new generation during the past three years, had been strong on dividends and was set to reap the rewards of reinvestment over the next three to four years.

However, further cautious commentary could come from companies such as Hellaby Holdings, Chorus, Vital Healthcare, Nuplex, Kiwi Income, Rakon and The Warehouse. The Warehouse's margins would continue to be under pressure as retail spending would be subdued and there was more significant capital expenditure to come.

"We don't expect the annual general meeting commentary to support the recent [20% gain in The Warehouse's] share price strength," he said.

Chorus is likely to reiterate the regulatory risks it faces, and has a outcome to consider later in the year on copper pricing.

Chinese growth was still impacting negatively on Australia's commodity prices and this would flow through to every sector of the Australian economy, Mr McIntyre said.

"Investor focus should be on infrastructure and consumer staples, selected high-quality cyclical stocks and those high dividend-paying stocks which will see investor support if the Reserve Bank of Australia continues to cut interest rates."

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