The quarterly trade balance figures - the difference between imports and exports - are due to be released by Statistics New Zealand tomorrow, but will be overshadowed by Friday's release of gross domestic product (GDP) data.
The GDP figures, measuring economic growth and now reflecting recessionary in-dicators, are picked by economists to reveal a 0.3% quarterly decline - the first of two consecutive negative quarters which will formally confirm a recession is in place.
ASB chief economist Nick Tuffley expected the March quarter trade balance to reveal a deficit of $2.04 billion, unadjusted, slightly narrowing the annual deficit to $13.6 billion, or an estimated 7.7% of GDP.
Compared with the same quarter last year, the quarterly deficit was likely to be smaller by $200 million, he said in a statement.
Fonterra has lifted its per-kilo milksolids payout to a record $7.90, while the flow of oil from the offshore Taranaki Tui field has topped more than 14 million barrels since production began last July, and its estimated total was upgraded 6.5% to 50.1 million barrels.
ANZ chief economist Cameron Bagrie said the trade balance would improve on the back of dairy and oil for the quarter, but the investment income deficit would be difficult to weigh up.
"A big uncertainty, as always, is the investment income deficit. We expect it to have deteriorated slightly over the quarter and remain above 7% of GDP, on an annual sense," Mr Bagrie said in a statement.
The turbulence in overseas markets this year - largely the effects of the global credit crunch - may have adversely affected New Zealanders' income from investments.
However, this was likely to be offset by foreign investors' returns from New Zealand investments suffering from pressured margins and the weakened economy here, he said.
He predicted less demand for imports because of the weakening demand from households coming under increasing financial pressure, while the exports and tourism might be boosted by the New Zealand dollar weakening against its Australian counterpart - but the latter tempered by the effects of a weaker global economy.
Mr Tuffley cautioned there could be some offset to a strong goods trade balance, as there would be an increased net outflow of investment income.
"Higher New Zealand interest rates and global risk premiums have boosted the cost of debt servicing, whilst recent stellar growth in returns from New Zealanders' foreign investments is likely to slow," he predicted.
