Survey shows optimism still rising

Cameron Bagrie.
Cameron Bagrie.
Consumer confidence has continued to lift in August as sentiment remains well above its long-run average, the latest ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Survey, released yesterday, showed.

With just over a month to go before the election, the index lifted from 125.4 in July to 126.2 in the August survey.

Once  seasonally adjusted, the index rose 2% to its highest level since July 2014, ANZ chief economist Cameron Bagrie said.

Consumers felt wealthier. A net 12% felt better off than a year ago. Views regarding personal financial circumstances in 12 months’ time lifted to 35, up from 32 last month.

A net 38% believed it was a good time to buy a major household item.

And in what would be seen as good news for the Government, views on the  economic outlook remained buoyant.

The real test of the economy would come next week when  Treasury released the Pre-Election Financial Update (Prefu), Mr Bagrie said.

Net optimism  about the economy one year out lifted from 23 to 25 and, when assessing the five-year economic outlook, optimism eased from 23 to 21.

Moderation across the housing sector was not taking the wind out of consumers’ sails. The economy was typically tied to the fortunes of the property market. Rising house prices lifted property owners’ wealth and encouraged spending. The reverse also applied, he said.

"Auckland house prices are falling, but it seems consumers feel there is no need to batten down the hatches."

There were plenty of reasons  consumers’ boats were not being rocked, Mr Bagrie said.

Jobs were plentiful and the unemployment rate had fallen to 4.8%.

• One person’s loss was another person’s gain. Falling house prices were good for those trying to get on the property ladder.

• House prices outside New Zealand were still lifting, although more modestly.

• Regional New Zealand was being buoyed by strong commodity prices. The South Island, with the exception of Canterbury, was now the country’s most upbeat region.

• The high New Zealand dollar was keeping inflation low and major household items cheap.

• Interest rates were still low and set to be lower for longer, although it should not be forgotten how that hurt savers.

• The Budget put $2billion on the table for families and the election lolly scramble was under way.

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