The organisation’s stock number survey, released yesterday, showed the breeding ewe flock continues to drop with a 0.9% reduction following a 5.2% reduction last year.
In Otago-Southland, several more whole farms were de-stocked this season to convert to forestry, while the fall in the carbon price, due to government policy consultations, had led to a slow down in new forest plantings, at least in the short term, the report said.
In a statement, B+LNZ chief insight officer Julian Ashby said the breeding flock was the key indicator of the future flock size.
"It’s trending down and is expected to continue to decline. One of the contributing factors is land-use change."
Analysis of land-use change from pastoral farming to large-scale forestry, released by B+LNZ in July, showed more than 200,000ha of sheep and beef farms had been sold into forestry in the past five years.
"We have been saying for some time that there needs to be specific limits on the amount of forestry that can be used to offset fossil fuel emissions in the Emissions Trading Scheme. B+LNZ is not anti-forestry — we know many farmers are interested in integrating trees into their farms — but there must be some balance," Mr Ashby said.
The report said the land-use change remained of high concern to many farmers. In 2021, two-thirds more farmland was sold for forestry conversion than in 2020. In 2022, the area sold declined following the government’s announcement of the review of the ETS.
B+LNZ understood the Overseas Investment Office had a backlog of applications which, if approved, would result in further conversion of food-producing land into forestry.
That land was being converted into forestry quickly, with 64,000ha planted on pastoral land in 2022 and a further 88,000ha identified as intended to be planted in 2023, the report said.
The number of breeding ewes to the ram in Otago-Southland decreased to 4.99 million head, the first time breeding ewe numbers dipped below 5 million in the region.
The trend was most evident in Southland, where numbers dropped 1.3%, the impact of fewer ewe hoggets retained as replacements last season contributing. In contrast, breeding ewe numbers were stable in Otago.
The forecast for lambing nationally was expected to slightly increase this spring, following favourable autumn conditions for ewes at mating, to 20.36 million.
In Otago-Southland, ewe pregnancy scanning was only partially completed when the stock number survey was undertaken and early results were mixed. Some farms reported excellent results, while others were disappointed.
There was optimism among farmers that scanning percentages would have increased this season because ewes were on a rising plane of nutrition and putting on condition on most farms as the ram went out.
Some farmers indicated the impacts of two years of drought might have had a long-term effect on ewe fertility.
The number of total beef cattle as at June 30, estimated at 3.81 million, was down 2.4%. The number of breeding cows and heifers increased 1.1%, the South Island mostly leading the increase. In Otago-Southland, total numbers increased 7.3% to 470,000.
