Rise in job advertising

The ANZ New Zealand job advertisement series rose by 0.9% in July, the sixth month of increases.

In July, the increase was driven by a 2.2% rise in internet listings, partially offset by a 3.9% fall in newspaper listings.

However, while the level of newspaper job advertisements fell, and remains at low levels, newspaper job advertisements are 33% higher than at the start of the year and 20% higher than a year ago.

ANZ-National Bank senior economist Sharon Zollner said the trend was still one of recovery although the bank would be watching coming months closely as job advertisements were a timely barometer of the labour market.

"A clear regional trend is emerging. Canterbury is leading the charge for newspaper [advertised] vacancies. In the past four months, more jobs have been advertised in Canterbury than in Auckland and Wellington combined."

Canterbury accounted for around 40% of newspaper advertised vacancies in July, she said. Historically, that figure had averaged 17%.

Internet advertising picked up strongly since reaching a trough in 2009. There had been an 84% increase in internet advertising since the low in July 2009.

Ms Zollner said the bank focused on a composite job advertisement for two reasons. First, the internet had significantly cheapened the search cost for employers. That had seen a switch away from traditional newspaper advertising.

"The level of newspaper advertising has seen a structural shift lower and focusing on the level can provide a misleading picture."

Secondly, jobs could often be multi-listed online, meaning online measures likely overstated the true picture, she said.

The composite measure had been calibrated to match changes in the unemployment rate as closely as possible. The calibration placed more weight on newspaper advertisements versus online advertising by a factor of five to one.

In July, the composite measure fell by 1.3% but that followed five "solid" months of increases, suggesting the unemployment rate would continue falling in coming months.

That would add to incomes and help broaden the recovery process for the economy, Ms Zollner said.

 

 

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