Reporting continues but at lesser pace

Suzanne Kinnaird
Suzanne Kinnaird
The reporting season continues this week but is starting to taper off after a busy time last week.

Chorus, Metlifecare and QEB Insurance are due to report this morning. Forsyth Barr broker Suzanne Kinnaird said the already announced connection numbers limited scope for Chorus to provide any revenue surprises.

The focus of the result would be on costs.

Accounting standard changes would cloud the year-on-year comparisons.

The adoption of IFRS 15 and 16 required the capitalisation of customer acquisition and retention costs. Forsyth Barr was forecasting a 10% fall in operating earnings to $362 million, driven by the continued transition of customers off Chorus’ legacy copper network to its own and local fibre company networks.

Connection losses had slowed, she said.

Importantly, the slower pace of losses reinforced the effect from fixed wireless competition had slowed.

A rise in operating expenditure was expected, including higher staffing costs.

"We are attracted to Chorus’ fundamental value underpinned by the considerable long-term free cash flow we expect it to generate once its ultra-fast broadband fibre network is complete in 2022."

In the short-term, Chorus’ full-year operating earnings guidance of $620 million to $650 million appeared conservative, Ms Kinnaird said.

Rest-home operator Metlifecare was expected to show the results of the continued strong demand for retirement village units and was expected to report a 9% rise in underlying profit.

Forsyth Barr broker Lyn Howe  expected improved new sales and resales although the strong margins of the second half of the previous financial year were not likely to be repeated.

Indicators such as resales vacancy, new sales versus new build rates, and pre-selling levels were of interest given the slow housing market.

An update on the company’s goal of developing at least 300 beds/units a year, by 2019, plus progress at key sites, was expected, she said.

"Metlifecare has benefited from a large lift from valuation gains at the last three results, supportive to the share price. We expect this again in the first half."

Forsyth Barr was forecasting underlying profit of $44.1 million for the six months ended December, up 10% on the previous corresponding period.

Reviewing some of the key results from late last week, Ms Howe said a slow finish to the honey harvest mean Comvita now expected a below-average volume for the year to be collected.

"This presents some risk to apiary business earnings."

Grey channel sales were also slightly behind target, albeit partially offset by the US expansion. Similarly, the recent Ministry of Primary Industry changes had likely constrained sales and might continue to be disruptive as importers assessed the effect of them. Grey market products (grey goods) were products sold by a manufacturer or their authorised agent outside the terms of the agreement between the reseller and the manufacturer. Comvita management had maintained earnings guidance of achieving a reported profit greater than $17.1 million. 

"We see slight downside risk to our $NZ18.7 million profit expectations."

The Summerset Group report on  Friday was slightly ahead or in line with forecasts in most areas. There was good growth across the business, indicating demand remained robust for high quality retirement products, Ms Howe said.

Summerset operated in Dunedin.

As expected, Summerset raised resales and new sales margins to 27.3% and 22.2% respectively, and average pricing increased,  new sales pricing up 15% and resales up 12%.

Ebos Group delivered a first-half  result largely in line with expectations. The  underlying profit after tax of  $76.7 million was up 9% on the previous year.

Operating profit growth was strong. However, higher costs associated with the recent HPS acquisition took the shine off after-tax profit growth, as expected, she said.

Ebos declared an interim dividend of 33c per share, in line with expectations and up 10% on the previous year.

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