Regions leading in jobs advertising

Virginia Nicholls
Virginia Nicholls
Job advertisements have fallen for the fifth consecutive month but regional advertising continues to lead the charge on an annual basis.

The ANZ Job Ads series reported job advertisements lifted 0.4% in September from August.

A flattening-out in the rate of growth in job advertisements was now evident, ANZ senior economist Sharon Zollner said.

The smaller regions continued to shine.

''In sharp contrast, job ads in Auckland have fallen for five months straight to be almost 5% off their April peak.

''We suspect labour demand is flattening off somewhat in line with the broader economy as key growth drivers such as construction, migration and tourism top out.''

However, the labour market remained very tight, she said.

On an annual basis, the regions were again outshining larger centres.

The West Coast had the highest annual growth on a three-month average, at 39.3%. Southland was next on 37.2%, followed by Nelson-Tasman-Marlborough 29.2%, Northland 25.5%, Waikato 22.5% Otago 21.5% and Hawke's Bay 19.7%.

Otago-Southland Employers Association chief executive Virginia Nicholls said despite a wet spring, beef, sheep and dairy farmers in Southland were continuing to improve production and profitability after a tough year.

Southland had experienced more visitors, which had benefited the local accommodation and hospitality sectors.

Exporters in the region were also experiencing strong sales.

Otago's growth was successful when significant increases in job advertisements seen in the past two years were considered, she said.

''We are just coming to the end of a positive winter tourist season, including a successful season on the ski fields.''

Construction was continuing to show strong growth in both residential and commercial sectors.

Accommodation for staff in Queenstown continued to be a concern, Mrs Nicholls said.

Transport operators across the region were also showing good growth in activity.

Businesses in both Otago and Southland were continuing to report skill shortages. Many businesses were reliant on migrant labour and did not want to see immigration significantly curtailed.

''I am pleasantly surprised job advertisements across Otago and Southland have remained relatively high despite some slow-down experienced during the election cycle.''

Wellington experienced the highest growth of a major centre on 9.7%, just above the New Zealand figure of 9.2%. Canterbury was 7.1% and Auckland was 5%.

Although the data could be volatile, the smaller regions continued to lead the charge, Ms Zollner said.

Annual job advertisements growth eased from a peak of 20% in January to 9% in September, on a three-month average.

After falling for a fifth month in a row, Auckland job ads were down nearly 5% in six months and its share of national job advertisements was dropping rapidly.

The construction sector added the most jobs in the past three months versus the previous three months. Job advertisements in the retail/tourism/recreation sector were falling.

''The flattening-off in job ads is consistent with our view the low-hanging fruit has been
picked at this stage of the economic cycle.''

Resources were becoming scarce and growth drivers were moving into different sectors.

Migration, tourism and construction were all likely to produce slow growth in the future, Ms Zollner said.

''Auckland job ads are not just flattening out but actually falling. We are on the lookout for signs the housing market slow-down could have spill-over effects into the broader economy. As such, we will be watching this data closely.''

As always, it was important to pay attention to the levels when growth flattened, she said.

The unemployment rate was at its lowest level since 2008 and even with slowing growth in labour demand from now on, a modest increase in wage growth was expected.

The increase looked set to be capped by still subdued consumer price index inflation, given it was often the starting point for wage negotiations, Ms Zollner said.


 

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