Nationally, gross domestic product sits at 2.8%, with Dunedin at 2.4% and wider Otago above at 3%, according to Infometrics quarterly economic monitor on Dunedin city.
On the face of it, tourism spending in Dunedin and Otago is higher than the national average, up respectively 6.3% and 8.6%, non-residential consents are up 99% in Dunedin and 45% around Otago and vehicle registrations for both are up by about 9%.
Chamber of Commerce chief executive Dougal McGowan saw the unemployment data as more foreboding, with the national average at 5%, but Dunedin on 6.3% and Otago 4.3%.
"There’s plenty of concerns in the data; a few fish hooks. Dunedin’s unemployment rate has jumped from 5.8% to 6.3% and we’ve got layoffs coming up; the 6.3% doesn’t take into account the university [of Otago] or Cadburys," Mr McGowan said from Australia yesterday.
By the start of next year Cadbury’s will have laid off 360 people, the university’s general staff division is under review with speculation of 300-plus jobs under scrutiny and about three dozen people have lost jobs at three Dunedin businesses in recent weeks.
Mr McGowan said the rising local unemployment rate was partly due to the "mismatch" of the skills and qualifications people had after leaving education and the changing needs of employers.
"They need a reality check, the starting rate is not $25 per hour, with a car and a cellphone," he said of those entering the workforce.
In several sectors, tourism or hospitality included, the starting pay rates were lower and people should expect to have to "work their way through" scaled pay grades.
He said several aspects of the GDP data were contributing to softening GDP in the region.
"Not only is unemployment and the skills shortage a dampener, but there are concerns with tourism.
"Yes, the spend is up but the guest nights stays are down," Mr McGowan said.
While national guest nights were up 3.7% and Otago 2.8%, Dunedin’s had slumped, being down 2.3%, from 934,300 a year ago to 912,600, for the year to June.
A separate tourism survey from the Ministry of Business, Innovation and Employment was released yesterday, showing Otago’s estimated tourism spend for the year to August was up 9%, to $3.7billion.
Internationals’ spending was up 13% to $2.1billion while domestic tourism spending rose 4% to $1.6billion for Otago.
Mr McGowan said Otago had to look at adapting to the changing face of tourism, with busloads of tourists now being replaced by free independent travellers, looking for a different experience, while different accommodation trends were also emerging.
On the question of both the visitors’ expectations and experiences, plus how New Zealanders wanted tourism to develop, the "overcrowding" was becoming an issue.
That was having negative effects on some of New Zealand’s wildlife, the environment and ability of regional centres to provide ever-increasing demands on utilities’ infrastructure.
He said while the issuance of non-residential consents was up 99%, that reflected "delayed commercial work" in the pipeline, including the university, polytechnic and hospital-build.
"That [commercial] work will be a continued strength for Dunedin, for some time," he said.
Another positive for Otago had been the resurgence of the export log sector during the past almost two years, and the turnaround in forecast dairy prices for the current season, both of which would be contributing hundreds of millions back into the local economy over time.
Another anomaly of the data, which appeared as a positive, was the near 9% rise in Otago and Dunedin car registrations, some of which would have been rental companies’ purchases to service the increasing tourism demand, Mr McGowan said.
