Queenstown, Auckland need more hotel beds

Queenstown is one of the country’s two tourist destinations with a shortage of hotel rooms. Photo...
Queenstown is one of the country’s two tourist destinations with a shortage of hotel rooms. Photo by ODT.

Auckland Airport and Air New Zealand are key beneficiaries of the current surge in tourist arrivals, with unprecedented growth in international tourist numbers.

However, Forsyth Barr broker Suzanne Kinnaird said the problem of accommodating tourists was getting bigger.

"The tourism industry will have the ‘full' sign up through the upcoming peak season. New capacity is coming but will take time to complete and open.''

However, tourist arrival growth rates were likely to slow, she added.

Professor David Simmons, of Lincoln University, said with New Zealand tourism on an upswing, the industry was in a good position to take stock of its future direction.

According to the just-released State of the Tourism Industry 2015 report, the industry was enjoying "very strong growth'', although seasonality, changes in visitor markets and skill shortages remained some of the biggest challenges.

Total tourism expenditure this year had amounted to $29.8billion, a 10.3% increase on the previous year.

However, tourism arrivals always ebbed and flowed and efforts needed to be made to ensure a continuing trend. 

"We should keep our focus on adding value to the New Zealand economy and across all of our regions,'' he said.

The issue of seasonality had long concerned the industry because of its strong effects on return on capital and labour and the report indicated it was becoming more pronounced rather than improving, Prof Simmons said.

Stronger December and February arrival peaks were occurring across most international markets, with a growing February peak particularly associated with Chinese New Year.

Of the tourism businesses surveyed, half described seasonality as a business challenge and 48% of those respondents deemed it the most significant challenge they faced, he said.

Ms Kinnaird said New Zealand's tourism industry was "pumping'' and the outlook remained positive, assisted by a co-ordinated approach in the form of the industry's Tourism 2025 strategy.

But the industry also needed to invest to sustain its growth profile, particularly as capacity constraints became more acute.

Infrastructure in New Zealand tended to be built after, rather than before, it was required, with the exception of Auckland Airport and the Port of Tauranga.

Tourism infrastructure was no different, epitomised by top-end hotels. Rising occupancy rates were creating inflationary pressures, she said.

"The hotel sector will be at, or close to, full-type levels through the upcoming peak season. The problem is most acute in Auckland and Queenstown.''

Building new hotels took time, Ms Kinnaird said. In recent years, more had closed than opened.

The sharing economy, such as Airbnb, could be part of the solution but was less suited to New Zealand than other markets.

A lack of incremental supply and rising demand meant prices should continue to rise.

In the meantime, the industry was focusing on growing the shoulders of the season, where excess capacity existed and the marginal return was higher.

That was sensible but did not solve peak season issues.

Ultimately, the current accelerated inbound tourist growth rates could slow, she said.

Auckland Airport's revenue model was helped more by tourist volume growth rather than value growth.

It was at odds with the broader industry's value-focused strategy.

Auckland Airport benefited when more tourists visited New Zealand for fewer days.

Rising stay lengths among Chinese visitors, and growing capacity constraints, would result in a slowing passenger growth trend over the medium-term.

Strong demand had helped offset potential yield compression from a seat capacity life and low oil prices for Air NZ, Ms Kinnaird said.

The premium nature of the airline's offer meant rising capacity constraints for international tourists might enhance its competitive position.

Jet fuel prices and yields would be the key drives of the company performance.

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