Quarterly GDP to June 0.7%

Business, accommodation and food services all combined to drive up gross domestic product (GDP) for the year to June to 3.9% growth, marking the measurement's highest level in seven years.

Economic activity for the quarter to June grew 0.7%, which was in line or just above analysts' expectations, but still below the Treasury's and Reserve Bank's expectations of 0.8% growth.

As could be expected on the eve of the election, Finance Minister Bill English lauded the quarterly growth as proof that National's ''sensible economic programme'' was working, while Labour finance spokesman David Parker criticised the export decline under National, which ''causes long-term damage'' to New Zealand's wealth.

Analysts said dairying, which is in the throes of a major global price plunge, and forestry were cited for slowing growth from 1% in each of the three preceding quarters, to 0.7% for the latest quarter.

Statistics New Zealand (SNZ) national accounts manager Gary Dunnet said services made up about two-thirds of the economy and all of 11 services industries increased during the quarter.

''The biggest increases were in industries that include advertising, employment services, and software development,'' Mr Dunnet said.

Mr English said New Zealand continued to enjoy one of the fastest-growing economies in the developed world, at 3.9% for the year to June, compared with Australia's 3.1%, 3.2% in the UK, 2.5% in both the United States and Canada, 1.3% in Germany and dead-flat zero growth in Japan.

''This took annual growth, from the June quarter 2013 to the June quarter 2014, to 3.9%, the highest growth rate for 10 years and the highest so far reported by OECD countries,'' Mr English said in statement.

Mr Parker countered National had promised exports, as a percentage of GDP, would increase from 33% to 40% under its watch, but the opposite had happened. Exports had declined to 29%, and would drop even further to 26%.

''That is the real story of National's economic management. As a nation we are going backwards.

''The way to increase our wealth is to export more to our trading partners. That will lead to better jobs with higher wages,'' Mr Parker said in a statement.

Westpac chief economist Dominick Stephens said decline in quarterly growth and slowdown was mainly confined to dairy production and forestry.

'' Dairy production fell back to more normal levels after very strong growing conditions earlier in the season. Forestry production was down in response to lower log prices, which reduced the incentive to harvest,'' Mr Stephens said.

While the data backed Mr Stephens' view that parts of the economy experienced ''a loss of altitude'' during the second quarter of the year, ''the overall trend remains robust''.

Mr Stephens cautioned that he expected ''relatively strong GDP growth'' for the year ahead, but the divergence between a very strong domestic economy and the weaker export sector might continue, or intensify.

ASB economist Christina Leung said the quarterly 0.7% increase confirmed the bank's view the NZ economy ''remains on a solid footing'' and that ''the underlying momentum remains intact'' in the economy.

The 1.4% increase in total services sector activity contributed wholly to the 0.7% GDP increase. The primary industry decline offset the increase in goods-producing industry activity.

''The underlying momentum in the growth figures was very respectable, particularly given the weaker contributions from sectors that had been driving growth strongly in recent quarters: construction and agriculture,'' she said.

CTU economist Bill Rosenberg said the lower GDP growth, during the three months to June, was further evidence that growth had peaked and New Zealand's economy was ''on the way down to mediocre growth rates''.

''Yet wage rises are still weak, with 43% of wage and salary jobs not getting a pay rise in the last year. The big question is whether wage and salary earners will get a fair share of the growth that has occurred,'' Mr Rosenberg said in a statement.

He noted that while the quarter saw growth mainly in services, production in most of the tradeables sector including agriculture, forestry, fishing, mining and manufacturing, all fell.

simon.hartley@odt.co.nz

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