Quarterly current account deficit rises

New Zealand's current account deficit for the quarter to June stands at $2 billion, up by $1.4 billion from the previous quarter to March, largely driven by declining value and volumes from the dairy sector.

A deficit in the current account meant New Zealand's earnings from the rest of the world were less than New Zealand's overseas expenditure.

''The value of goods exports fell over a range of commodities, with dairy the most significant contributor this quarter,'' Statistics New Zealand international statistics manager Jason Attewell said.

Global dairy auction prices have taken an almost 50% hit since February, prompting rising concern over the effect on Fonterra's final payout to farmers, which on present forecasts wipes more than $5 billion from the economy.

ASB economist Christina Leung said that, as expected, the fall in exports across a range of commodities was the key driver behind the decline in the goods balance.

''In particular, the fall in both price and volume of dairy exports was a key contributor to the lower balance,'' Ms Leung said.

The smaller-than-expected deficit largely reflected a service balance which was stronger than expected, as tourism spending by overseas visitors to New Zealand held up, Ms Leung said.

Gross domestic product (GDP) data for the quarter to June is due out today and consensus forecasts are weak, at around 0.5% for the quarter.

New Zealand's annual current account was a deficit of $5.8 billion, or 2.5% of GDP, for the year ended June 2014, compared with $6 billion, or 2.7% of GDP, for the year ended March.

The latest deficit is $2.1 billion smaller than that for the year ended June 2013, which was 3.7% of GDP, SNZ said.

Westpac senior economist Michael Gordon said financial markets were unaltered by the as-expected result and it did not affect Westpac's forecast of a 0.7% increase in June quarter GDP today.

New Zealand's net international liability position, which measured the value of the country's overseas assets less overseas liabilities, was $149.7 billion, or 65.3% of GDP, at June 30, SNZ's Mr Attwell said.

The net liability position was now $1.4 billion smaller than at March 31, due to valuation changes.

''This is the smallest net liability position as a percentage of GDP in almost 13 years,'' Mr Attewell said.

New Zealand's net external debt position, which measures our overseas lending less overseas borrowing, increased $2 billion to $142.3 billion, or 62.1% of GDP, despite an improvement in the net international liability position, he said.

simon.hartley@odt.co.nz

Add a Comment