While Port Otago lost at least 22,000, mainly empty, Maersk trans-ship containers last year, if a shift of alliances and cargo paths, mainly around the South Island, occurs, it could see a welcome boost to its container trade.
An industry insider, who did not want to be identified, said with the forthcoming deletion of Timaru's PrimePort from the Maersk and Hamburg Sud service to the Americas, Port Otago could gain much of the cargo now handled at Timaru, because Port Chalmers would have the only direct service to the east coast of North America.
As with the other developments, other industry sources believe Port Otago will benefit from Timaru's loss more than many anticipate.
However, there is a yet-to-be defined level of cargo "leakage" to Lyttelton Port of Christchurch.
Maersk's withdrawal from Timaru caused a 90% loss of the port's container trade, emphasising the power Maersk wields over ports and underscoring that it has been Port Chalmers' largest customer for many years.
When contacted, Port Otago chief executive Geoff Plunket declined to comment on the speculation or whether any talks were being held with the shipping lines.
Just last week, Port Otago confirmed it was increasing its overall footprint at three sites around Dunedin by more than 6ha, all sites providing some form of container-handling facilities.
The industry insider said it "also appears" Port Chalmers could handle export cargo from Nelson, destined for the Americas, through transhipment on the Maersk Southern Star service out of the Malaysian hub.
That service is understood to be including calls in Wellington and Nelson before going to Port Chalmers.
Speculation on more cargo for Port Otago comes from a new Asia Star service being offered by Maersk that mirrors the current weekly Asia operated by CMA-CGM and OOCL (Orient Overseas Container Line). The threesome is expected to be in partnership by the end of this month.
Only a small number of slots are expected to be available on the new Asia service but having the three partners on board would, overall, strengthen the service for exporters.
Eight weeks after Maersk quit Port Chalmers last year, the slightly smaller French line CMA CGM Group stepped in to fill the gap, in a new service connecting Asia, Fiji and New Zealand, and was later joined as a service partner by OOCL.
