As with much of the economic data released in recent weeks, the prosperity of several key sectors is being closely linked to what has become a slow start to the rebuild of Christchurch.
The North Island's northern and central regions and the Canterbury-Westland area all remained in expansion mode for March, while Otago-Southland rose from 44.3 a year ago, to 48.8, according to yesterday's release of the monthly BNZ-Business New Zealand performance of manufacturing index (PMI).
PMI readings above 50 indicate expansion, and below 50, contraction. Nationally, the PMI rose from 49.7 in March last year to 54.5 last month.
The PMI survey follows four other, separate, economic reports released since last week, the first two linking employer and employee confidence closely to performance of the housing and construction sectors, while this week's reports reflected "sideways" economic activity and another with the economy in a teetering, holding pattern.
Aside from delays of the Christchurch rebuild, the surveys cite scouring of exporters' margins because of the strength of the New Zealand dollar and potentially slower growth from the economies of Australia and China.
Several recognised commentators had expressed concerns about the continuing "flat economic trending patterns" and the same negative characteristics were also impacting on regional manufacturing and exporters, John Scandrett, chief executive of the Otago Southland Employers Association, said.
"Once again the overall operational performance in this sector is patchy, to say the least.
"While the March PMI survey returns have delivered comment strength within food and beverage, metal products and machinery sub-sectors, there is lacklustre feedback in textile and clothing and wood product manufacturing," he said in a statement.
When contatced, Farra Engineering chief executive John Whitaker said casual local work had "held steady" at 10%-15% of overall business during the past year, but otherwise there had been "no change in activity", or noticeable fluctuations.
"There are some signs of a quietening off ahead, because of some long-term contracts coming to an end," he said.
Mr Scandrett said the pending lift to be gained from Canterbury-driven economic activity meant Otago and Southland manufacturers should be preparing to meet the expansion demand.
"When the Christchurch rebuild kicks in, there will undoubtedly be some wider market opportunities for our regionally manufactured items, but within the downside for us, it is highly likely that there will be tightening pressure on our own labour, and selected product, markets," Mr Scandrett said.
BNZ economist Doug Steel, said while March's PMI had pulled back from February's "extremely strong" national PMI of 57.7, March still represented overall positive momentum.
He forecast the manufacturing sector would return a decent positive contribution to first quarter GDP (gross domestic product ) growth, of up to 1.2% for that quarter.
