Otago's economic outlook up 13.9%

Otago’s wide variety of international and domestic tourism attractions are underpinning economic confidence. New Zealand surf champion Maz Quinn competes at St Clair Beach, Dunedin. Photo by Stephen Jaquiery.
Otago’s wide variety of international and domestic tourism attractions are underpinning economic confidence. New Zealand surf champion Maz Quinn competes at St Clair Beach, Dunedin. Photo by Stephen Jaquiery.
In-bound atop the Remarkables skifield. Photo by Guy Williams.
In-bound atop the Remarkables skifield. Photo by Guy Williams.
Michael Stuart fly-fishing the Waitaki River. Photo by Gerard O'Brien.
Michael Stuart fly-fishing the Waitaki River. Photo by Gerard O'Brien.
US water ski champion Daniel Kennedy rips up a private pond near Millers Flat, Central Otago. Photo by Craig Baxter.
US water ski champion Daniel Kennedy rips up a private pond near Millers Flat, Central Otago. Photo by Craig Baxter.

Confidence in Otago's economic outlook is at its highest for a decade, underpinned by international and domestic tourism around Central Otago and the Queenstown Lakes areas.

The welling in Otago's confidence is mirrored in nine of the 11 areas around the country. Otago's 13.9% gain to 37.6% ranking it sixth out of the nine improving areas. Southland's confidence is also strong, sitting fifth with 40%.

The Westpac McDermott Miller regional confidence survey said country-wide confidence rose sharply during the last quarter of 2016, based on surging dairy prices, construction, job activity and in Otago's case tourism.

''All this means many parts of the country are feeling more upbeat about their local prospects than they have in some time,'' Westpac acting chief economist Michael Gordon said.

Confidence in Otago's economic outlook had continued to build, with a net almost 38% of households now expecting economic fortunes will improve over the year ahead.

''That follows a large increase last quarter, and takes confidence in Otago's economic outlook to its highest level in 10 years,'' Mr Gordon said.

Otago Chamber of Commerce chief executive Dougal McGowan said the province was reaping the benefits of being ''discovered'' domestically, as well as the influx of international tourists to Queenstown and wider Central Otago.

He said while international tourism earned the country about $11.8 billion, domestic tourism accounted for a further $18 billion.

''We've got to keep our eye on that ball. Gisborne and Rotorua are favourites, but people are now discovering Dunedin ... and the wider Otago, backed by Central Otago,'' he said.

Mr McGowan said construction was playing ''a really large part'' in Otago's economic confidence, sitting at its highest level since 2007. The dairy slump of the past two seasons is showing clear signs of decreasing.

Mr Gordon also noted construction activity around Otago was picking up.

''Both international and domestic tourism are providing a large boost to economic conditions in the region, especially in the Queenstown-Lakes District.''

On the question of households' own economic situation, that aspect of the survey revealed Otago consumer confidence continued to climb in December, from 108 to 116.

''That takes consumer confidence in the region to above average levels,'' he said.

The increased optimism in the economic outlook was reflected in spending appetites, Mr Gordon said.

''A net 30% of [Otago] households indicated they think now is a good time to buy a big-ticket household item. That's one of the highest rates in the country.''

He said there were two notable exceptions in the survey. Confidence ''tumbled'' in Wellington, down 15.4% and Canterbury, down 17.1%; they are the regions most affected by the large earthquake in mid-November.

While Auckland's overall confidence improved 10%, its optimism was bottom of the list at 13.2%.

Mr Gordon said economic confidence in Auckland had been declining since mid-2014, and despite the 10% gain during the last quarter, was still not enough to lift it from bottom place.

Aucklanders appeared to be acutely aware of challenges facing their region; mainly spiralling house prices and multibillion-dollar infrastructure projects.

''The region also has less to gain from improving dairy prices than other parts of the country,'' he noted.

simon.hartley@odt.co.nz

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