Hard hit motorists may have to bear further escalating prices at the pump with medium-term global oil prices forecast to rise.
The upward pressure on oil comes on the back of expected economic growth in nations which are not in the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD).
With New Zealand main centre pump prices of $2.19 a litre matching records set in mid-2008, the future increasing demand for oil is mainly pegged to economic growth in China, India, the Middle East and Latin American nations.
Craigs Investment Partners research on the Australian energy sector has revised its oil price forecasts out to 2015, increasing in a range of $US13-$US20 ($NZ17-$NZ26) per barrel to $US115-$US125.
Crude oil spot prices were up 1.1% at $US107.94 yesterday.
Craigs broker Peter McIntyre said Saudi Arabia's spare capacity of oil had been eroded from about 4 million barrels a day to 2 million.
Initially, this was because of increased global economic growth in January, but that was further compounded by the Libyan revolution and having to replace 1.4 million barrels of lost Libyan oil production.
"With Saudi's spare capacity down to about 2 million barrels, that is making the oil market vulnerable to any further supply interruptions."
Yesterday on the New York futures exchange, forward contracts for the delivery of crude oil in May hit a two and a-half year high, up 50c to more than $US108. The futures prices might yet head beyond $US110 if the crisis in Libya and problems in north Africa get worse, or there was more positive economic news out of China or the United States, which prompts increasing oil demand, he said.
The escalating oil prices would underpin several energy stocks, such as Santos, Woodside Petroleum and Oil Search in Australia. For some of the larger listed energy-producing companies, average earnings this year could be boosted by as much as 25% and next financial year by 22%, Mr McIntyre predicted.
However, he cautioned consumers to also consider the "double whammy" effect, that even if the price of oil as a commodity went down, it could be replaced by global inflationary pressures in a range of 5%-6%.
"The huge underestimate of demand growth during 2010 by most forecasters suggests that the lack of timely and accurate statistical data for emerging market nations will continue to be a problem for forecasters."
Oil prices during the next few years would be supported at present levels, or above present prices, by several factors, including a "robust" global economic outlook, oil demand from China as it increases its strategic reserves, and short-term "intractable" geopolitical forces in the Middle East; such as the Libyan crisis.
"[Also] financial factors such as the weak US dollar may also offer support to oil prices," Mr McIntyre said.
During the last run of record pump prices, motorists were cushioned a little because the New Zealand dollar was a lot stronger against the US than it is at present.
