OCR cut predicted in face of weak economy

Nick Tuffley
Nick Tuffley
The Reserve Bank is widely expected to cut its interest-driving official cash rate on Thursday, balancing up the extremes of an impending inflation spike within a slowing economy.

The rate was cut by 25 basis points in July to 8%, its first drop in five years, with expectations it will be about 7%-7.25% by the end of the year.

All but one of 17 economists in a Reuters poll expected the central bank to cut rates by a further 25 basis points to 7.75% on Thursday, with just one economist predicting a 50 basis-point cut, NZPA reported.

ASB chief economist Nick Tuffley said when contacted while the New Zealand dollar was down, it was not expected to stop the Reserve Bank from dropping rates, which have already been factored into lending rates by the markets.

"There is an inflation spike in the mix, but a weak economy will take care of that," Mr Tuffley said.

He forecast that by the end of the year rates would go down three times consecutively, including one drop of 50 basis points, to end at 7.25%.

BNZ chief economist Craig Ebert singularly believes the OCR will be cut consecutively by 25 basis points to the end of next year.

However, an earlier forecast of rates down to 5.5% by the end of next year may be replaced by a pause in the easing by the Reserve Bank.

The only reason to stop an easing in rates during the next 18-months would be if the New Zealand economy stopped slowing, which was making the Reserve Bank "more cautionary", Mr Ebert said.

"In that case, the Reserve Bank would simply stop lowering the OCR," he said.

New Zealand interest rates remain among the highest in the Organisation of Economic Co-operation and Development.

But the strength of the New Zealand dollar has waned against the rising United States dollar during the past three weeks, which has seen investors turn to other, higher yielding currencies.

 

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