NZX punished by investors

Tom Bliss.
Tom Bliss.
Investors punished NZX shares yesterday after the share-market operator issued a disappointing first-half forecast downgrade.

The shares traded as low as $1.14 with more than 700,000 crossing at $1.15. The shares closed last night at $1.18, down 14c on Friday's close of $1.32.

NZX said it expected smaller first-half earnings than a year earlier as it came up with as much as $3 million to pay for its Clear Grain Exchange litigation and to cover the costs of installing a new chief executive.

Earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, amortisation, and fair value movements (ebitdaf) were between $9 million and $10 million in the six months ended June 30. That was smaller than the ebitdaf of $11.7 million in the same period last year. Net profit was between $3 million and $4 million, compared with $4.5 million in 2011.

Forsyth Barr broker Tom Bliss said his valuation of NZX came down 3c a share to $1.14 after the announcement but he retained a hold recommendation on the company.

"Although the number of equity transactions is tracking above last year, value traded declined by 12.4% in the second quarter and listings and secondary capital raisings are down significantly on the previous corresponding period."

At the same time, an increase in first-half expenses of between $2 million and $3 million was expected with about two-thirds of the increase associated with appointing the new chief executive, the Clear Grain litigation and several non-recurring items.

The remainder reflected a reduction in the level of capitalisation of project costs, which would be ongoing, Mr Bliss said.

NZX said the outlook for the next six months combined a traditionally stronger second half for NZX's businesses with some significant market developments against the backdrop of a challenging global economic environment. The medium-term outlook for the business remained strong.

The stock exchange had contended with dwindling trading values on its bourse this year as investors remained nervous as Europe's sovereign debt woes eroded confidence.

It returned about $34.4 million to shareholders in May after getting the proceeds from its TZ1 carbon trading registry sale.

NZX said it would launch equity derivatives in the first half of next year, and planned initiatives to bolster its global position with dairy derivatives.

"Resources will also be invested in initiatives designed to increase the attractiveness of listing for small and medium-size companies seeking capital for growth," NZX said.

The company would give a detailed outlook in its published first-half results on August 20.

Mr Bliss said the company's revenue mix had shifted towards lower-volatility sources - annual listing and participant fees, energy contracts, publication and data subscriptions and fund management fees.

"There is still significant further growth potential from NZX's expansion into agriculture, energy, commodities and derivatives but we believe this is now fully factored into the share price which is slightly above our valuation."

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